Montana’s unemployment rate is expected to keep declining in the next 10 years, but the state could struggle with a shortage of workers as the labor force ages and the Baby Boomer generation retires.

Faced with this looming problem, state economists are emphasizing the need for greater workforce participation among women, who are employed full-time at a lower rate than men, 57 percent compared to 76 percent, according to the latest U.S. Census data.

But increasing the number of female workers means addressing a lingering issue involving wages.

On average among full-time employees, women earn 78 cents for every $1 earned by men nationwide and 75 cents for every $1 earned by men in Montana, according to government data.

“The gender wage gap exists,” Barb Wagner, chief economist with the Montana Department of Labor and Industry, told the crowd at last week’s Montana Chamber of Commerce event in Kalispell.

The wage gap has improved nationwide in the last 30 years but gains have leveled off in recent years, Wagner said.

A large portion of women tends to work in lower-paying occupations and industries, Wagner said. Women are also more likely to work part-time jobs or take more time off to raise a family.

But a “cultural problem” does exist that illustrates lingering discrimination toward women, she said.

Only a quarter of U.S. business executives are female, Wagner said, citing national research. Women are 50 percent less likely to work in jobs at the top of the pay scale.

“The higher the wage, the less likely a woman will be hired, even given similar experience and skills,” Wagner said.

Roughly 30 percent of the gender wage gap is due to the chosen occupation, according to Wagner. Twenty percent is due to the industries that women are more often working in, such as education, health care and professional services.

But 14 percent of the wage gap cannot be explained through economists, Wagner said.

“Generally this is the unexplained portion and it’s referred to as the discrimination factor,” Wagner said.

Wagner said women could improve their chances of higher wages through education and experience. But there is also a cultural change that needs to take place, she said.

“In this greater concept of worker shortage, having this discussion about bringing more women into the workplace is important,” she said.

Flathead County Economy Enjoying Strong Year

Fueled by strong gains in the real estate, construction and retail industries, Flathead County’s economy is expected to perform better than previously forecasted this year, according to economists.

Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana, delivered a mid-year update in Kalispell last week as part of the Montana Chamber of Commerce’s annual Governors’ Cup event.

Montana and Flathead County are riding a wave of economic momentum from 2014 into 2015.

Barkey said the state is enjoying a strong year of reasonable economic growth despite disappointing national growth and dipping commodity prices. The state’s labor market is approaching full employment, he said, and several counties are experiencing impressive gains, including Flathead.

Job growth in Flathead County is expected at 3.4 percent this year, higher than the 3.2 percent predicted in January, said Paul Polzin, director emeritus at BBER.

The construction industry is almost back to pre-recession 2008 levels, Polzin said. The trade/retail sector is also growing at an increased speed. Nonresident travel is also “very strong,” the economists said. The real estate industry has benefited from persistently low interest rates. The Federal Reserve has said it would likely increase the rates this fall.

The state is performing well despite significant variability in commodity prices. Lumber prices have improved, but barley, wheat and beef have dipped. Also, oil prices have plummeted, leading to widespread reports of an “oil bust.”

Don’t believe the hype, Barkey said; despite fewer operating rigs, the nation’s crude production continues to increase.

“The rig count is really misleading in terms of what is going on. The rigs are more efficient, and there is more discipline in the market because (oil) prices are down,” he said.