By Joe Carbonari
In our presidential primaries we are seeing surprising changes in our society. There is a wider and deeper sense of displeasure, particularly in the middle class, than was generally realized. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders supporters include much of this. Together, this degree of displeasure suggests our country is changing and that our governmental system has been slow to adapt. The result has been too slow a recovery from the recession, and too many people left out. This problem will live on. These people can vote. We will change.
Will that change involve Donald Trump being denied his party’s nomination and then running as an independent instead? Probably not. Trump could simply cry “foul” and walk home; saving face and not having to serve.
To win as an independent Trump would have to face a severely damaged Democrat. Hillary Clinton, if the candidate, will continue to be attacked, but she has proven resilient. Clinton wins a three-way race. Some Bernie Sanders supporters would stay home, but actual cross-overs would probably be few.
If Sanders were to be Trump’s opposition, Trump would stand even less of a chance. Sanders would likely temper the message and the Democrats would likely unite sufficiently to win. Likely decisively.
Sander’s supporters are political gold. They are disproportionately young, educated, idealistic, and energetic. Political support for the long run. Their attitude is positive; their vision of value. They should be welcomed aboard.
Trump’s supporters will likely scatter.
By Tim Baldwin
Political commentators surmise that delegates at the Republican National Convention will not hand Donald Trump the nomination, despite his success in the primaries. If this happens, some predict Trump will run as a third party candidate. What are the probabilities here?
First, there will likely be notable backlash if the RNC denies Trump the nomination. People are seeing more often how party elites control more of the elections than people once realized. Mistreating Trump (as they did Ron Paul) would only motivate more people to abandon the GOP in 2016 and vote for third-party Trump.
Second, the GOP is already on shaky ground. If it loses a significant portion of its base in 2016 and were Trump to beat the GOP nominee in the general election, it may never recover from such damage.
Third, Trump’s success as a third party candidate may change the political landscape in the foreseeable future and give third parties a platform never seen since the Civil War. The Libertarian Party has gained significant popularity in 2016 due to the nature of this election: a third-party Trump would increase its potential.
Political history teaches us one thing: there is no stopping progress. Political elites always try to build their power even at the expense of the people; but over time, circumstances inevitably unravel this facade. Thankfully, in America, this can be done through elections and not war. 2016 may provide such a catalyst.