HELENA – Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock and Republican challenger Greg Gianforte have spent more than a year trying to win over Montana voters, but there is one factor that will be out of their control and foremost in voters’ minds on Tuesday: the race for president.
Republican Donald Trump’s run against Democrat Hillary Clinton has made for an unusual and uncertain election year. That could filter down to Montana’s biggest race, political analysts say, though they’re not sure exactly how.
“There are so many questions,” University of Montana political scientist Rob Saldin said. “Do a significant number of Republicans stay home because they’re disgusted with Trump? Does Hillary’s unpopularity mean a lower turnout?”
Montana voters typically throw their support behind Republican presidential candidates, and Trump figures to win the state this year. But that doesn’t mean down-ticket Republicans can rest easy: In the last three presidential elections, Montana voters have elected the Democratic candidate as governor while picking the GOP presidential candidate.
But Trump is not a typical Republican candidate, and this is not a typical election year, Saldin said.
“If I were on one of these, any of these, campaigns, I’d be worried about that. Just the general chaos and uncertainty that’s been caused by the presidential campaign and how that’s going to affect things down-ballot,” he added.
Bullock, the state’s attorney general before being elected in 2012 as one of only 18 Democratic governors in the U.S., has framed himself as a coalition builder and a champion of protecting public access to lands and waterways. He shrugged off what effect Trump may have on his bid for a second term.
“I control those things that I can control, and that’s actually getting out there and talking to voters,” Bullock said.
Gianforte, a conservative who’s running on cutting taxes and bringing high-paying jobs to the state, said he doesn’t believe the presidential race will have much of an effect on the governor’s election.
“We’re pretty notorious ticket splitters, you know, going both sides, judging on who they think can do the best job,” Gianforte said of the state’s voters. “No matter who gets elected back in Washington, we’re going to need strong leadership here in Helena to defend our way of life.”
One issue has already filtered down from the presidential race: emails. Gianforte, backed by Republican lawmakers, has tried to compare Bullock to Clinton by saying both mishandled official emails.
There is no record of Bullock’s emails from his time as attorney general, as discovered when Yellowstone Club founder Tim Blixseth made a sweeping request for those messages.
Bullock has said he preserved the case files and other public records for that time, and let his prior email account lapse when he left office in 2013. Officials with Bullock’s Department of Administration say the emails were properly disposed of when Bullock left office, and a Department of Justice inquiry found it was unable to determine whether any messages should have been retained.
The email issue is just one part of the escalating rhetorical war between Bullock and Gianforte in the final weeks of the campaign.
Bullock repeatedly says Gianforte donating his campaign an unprecedented $5 million of his own money is evidence that the Bozeman businessman is trying to buy the election. Gianforte responds that Bullock is trying to do the same with financial support from political action committees and others totaling $255,000.
The Democratic Governors Association and the Republican Governors Association also have each spent millions on ads to influence the race.
Bulllock has accused Gianforte of being against public access to land and waterways, running a business that helped other companies cut or outsource jobs and advocating for a statewide sales tax.
Gianforte has denied the claims and has countered by attacking Bullock for piggybacking campaign events on top of official business for which he used a state plane, once attending a Paul McCartney concert in Missoula in 2014. Bullock partially reimbursed the state for trips in which campaign events were scheduled.
Bullock has highlighted Gianforte’s past contributions to conservative groups and causes, and his opposition to a Bozeman ordinance forbidding businesses to discriminate on the basis of sexual orientation.
The Gianforte campaign has denounced Bullock for not taking a stand against incoming refugees from Syria, playing on fears that terrorists may slip into the country. Bullock has said the safety of Montana residents is the top priority, but refugee resettlement is an issue for the federal government.
The refugee issue became a focal point in several Montana races after Missoula announced it would accept refugees. Congolese refugees have arrived in Montana but no Syrian refugees have.