Page 30 - Flathead Beacon // 2.24.16

LIKE I WAS SAYIN’
TWO FOR THOUGHT SAME TOPIC, DIFFERENT VIEWS WHERE THE GOP RACE STANDS
KELLYN BROWN
TRADING PLACES
LIKE MANY AMERICANS, AT LEAST THOSE living close to the border, the draw of a weekend trip to Canada is more attractive with the U.S dol- lar here worth nearly $1.40 there. So I headed to Ban , Alberta last weekend for the rst time, and along the way tried to get some sense of how tourism and the economy were faring with the latest down of the periodic up-and- down cycle of our neighbor’s currency.
Before the trip even began, at the last minute, I added an extra night to the mini-vacation, booking a room at Fairmont Hot Springs – named the same as Montana’s resort – about two hours from Ban . I never do this, assuming the cost will be too high. But with the exchange rate that translates to about 30 percent o everything, and with a low-end room available, I thought, “Why not?”
This would not have been the case even one year ago, before the Canadian dollar’s precipitous drop, when everything there (for good reason) was considered expen- sive. Now, I’ve traveled north twice in three months, mostly because of the exchange rate and partially because of what caused it – cheap gas prices. So much of the coun- try’s economy, especially Alberta’s, relies on energy that the soft market has hit it especially. Tourism, on the other hand, has experienced a mild renaissance.
Rob Taylor, vice president for the Tourism Industry Association of Canada, told CNBC that last year inbound tourism to Canada from the U.S. was up 8 percent over 2014. And Wayne Thomson, chair of Niagara Falls Tour- ism, said “2015 was the best year we’ve had since 2008, when Canada saw a big dip in U.S. tourism because the U.S. was requiring Americans to show a passport to re-enter the country.”
Flathead tourism has been impacted in the opposite way, with fewer Canadians spending money in the valley. But as low fuel prices lure more domestic travelers, bed tax collections in White sh and Kalispell were still solid in 2015. And both Glacier National Park and Glacier Park International Airport are coming o record years.
People are still coming here, including Canadians. And those I talked to during my weekend up north were aware of the Flathead, had visited, or wanted to in the future. Even with the exchange rate, goods and services in Montana are about the same for Canadians as they are in their country, where a beer costs about $7 and a lunch upwards of $15. They’re simply not getting the discount anymore. We are.
More problematic to Canadians, especially those in Alberta, is their country’s reliance on the energy sec- tor, which has continued to shed jobs. Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency published a report that predicted oil sands “growth slowing considerably, if not coming to a complete standstill, after the projects under construction are completed.”
The jobless rate in Alberta hit 7.4 percent in January, the highest since 1996. Yet many of the Canadians with whom I spoke, while acknowledging their concerns, said, “It will bounce back” – referring both to the economy and the value of their currency.
After all, they’ve been through these cycles before. And so has the Flathead, for that matter. It happened in 2008. It really happened in 2002, when the Canadian dol- lar was worth a record-low 61.8 cents. When commodities stabilize, the exchange rates will begin moving in di er- ent directions again.
Northwest Montana’s economy is in much better shape than during the years following the recession, when the retail and service industry placed out welcome mats for Canadians, whose strong dollar and increased tourism to the area relieved some of the pain. Now the roles are reversed. Take advantage of it while you still can.
BY TIM BALDWIN
The top three competitors for the GOP nomination
are now Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Cruz barely won Iowa, but Trump handily won South Carolina with Rubio beating Cruz for second and Jeb Bush dropping out. What does this signify?
South Carolina is one of the most Christian, con- servative states in the union. This speaks volumes for Trump and against Cruz considering Trump’s less-than-religious appeal and Cruz’s normal attrac- tion to religious elements. This signals Cruz’s decline from here. This leaves Rubio and Trump, who appeal to very di erent voting blocks.
Rubio is a polished, young, attractive politician, who seemingly comes from middle-class, immigrant mate- rial. But the more libertarian and independent ele- ments of society may perceive him as establishment and untrustworthy. Trump, on the other hand, is seen by many as rogue, a leader, and non-establishment; but he is unpolished and potentially dangerous to the well-entrenched system. Many Rubio supporters would not support Trump, and vice-a-versa. Rand Paul sup- porters would stay home or vote for Bernie Sanders.
If Trump wins and faces Hillary Clinton, she would likely prevail because Trump is too large of an “X” fac- tor for most Americans. If Rubio wins, the same would result because the anti-establishment, libertarian and independent voting segments would be unmotivated to vote for Rubio, giving Clinton an advantage. One must wonder: is the only chance of defeating Clinton in 2016 a Trump-Rubio ticket? Perhaps.
BY JOE CARBONARI
Could Marco Rubio play Robin to Donald
Trump’s Batman? Probably not. They are too dif- ferent. The hurdle of trust is too high. Rubio’s par- ents made a living as a bartender and a maid. Trump grew up in New York real estate. Trump projects the street smarts of a wise guy. Rubio has school smarts. He relies more on intellect than instinct. Trump wings it. Rubio has that hungry look – too ambitious for his own good. Trump is unlikely to trust him.
A Trump-John Kasich accommodation might be interesting. Kasich would calm some moderates’ nerves. He has experience and comes from Ohio, a state rich in delegates and history. Republicans have not done well with winning the state.
Further, Trump, with some knowledgeable, respected advisors might be hard to beat. He is whipping up and playing o a deep strain of discon- tent pervasive throughout the country and espe- cially the struggling middle class. With Trump a change would be almost certain. With the addition of some experienced establishment types, a Trump team might take it all the way to the White House.
If Rubio outlasts Ted Cruz and becomes the anti- Trump, can he stop him? He’d need to step up his game and be able to trust his instincts, and do so quickly. Perhaps he can. Perhaps Trump will help by overplaying his hand. Perhaps we will all think twice before we vote.
AMERICAN RURAL DIANE SMITH
THE MILLENNIAL CHALLENGE
O
with young adults; it’s particularly fascinating in a presidential election year.
According to a report from still-too-big-to-fail bank Goldman Sachs (which obviously has reason to understand these sorts of things) 15-to-35-year-olds represent the biggest generation in U.S. history. Gold- man’s report found that there are 92 million millenni- als (ages 15-35), 61 million Gen Xers (ages 36-50), and 77 million baby boomers (ages 51-70). The millennial generation is predicted to change our futures in signif- icant ways. Nowhere is this more likely to be felt than in politics.
The millennials we see on these campuses are sur- prisingly dimensional for being so young. They get accused of being entitled and coddled but that’s obvi- ously not the whole picture. They’re digitally savvy, cynical, aspirational, and communal while simulta- neously libertarian in intriguing ways. According to the Goldman report, they exercise more, eat smarter, and smoke less than their predecessors. So it appears that just like the baby boomer generation disrupted the thinking and sensibilities of earlier generations (remember the ‘60s?), millennials are poised to be pretty disruptive themselves.
As we’ve talked politics and listened closely, some consistent themes have emerged. So, I’m taking the liberty to report back on the questions millennials
seem to want answered by their political candidates. These questions may or may not determine the out- come of the 2016 elections. Regardless, it seems pretty clear that they’ll likely be big in the near future so we all might want to start getting familiar with them now. • How will you address wealth inequality and the
shrinking middle class?
• How do you intend to protect the earth from exces-
sive demands on its resources and capacity?
• How will you promote diversity in hiring, opportu-
nity, and justice?
• How will you ensure accessible, a ordable
healthcare?
• Under what conditions will you commit our troops
to foreign con ict?
• In summary, what are your plans to ensure that
5-10 years from now we’re con dent of equal opportunity and protection, living on a livable earth, and using our technological and intellectual progress to improve daily life?
The national political candidates haven’t really proposed much in the way of compelling, new ideas to address these matters. Maybe because few of them believe that millennials will actually show up to vote in 2016. Or maybe they’re planning to roll out new ideas after the primaries. Sooner or later though, this fasci- nating, complicated generation will engage. And, when 92 million people demand change, change will happen. Hang on. It’s gonna be quite a ride.
VER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, I’VE BEEN ON university campuses from Missoula to Bill-
ings. It’s always illuminating to spend time
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FEBRUARY 24, 2016 // FLATHEADBEACON.COM