Page 17 - Flathead Beacon // 9.2.15

Canadian Election Could Impact Trade,
Environmental Policies
Three major parties are facing off next month to take control of Canada’s Parliament
BY JUSTIN FRANZ OF THE BEACON
While American airwaves are flooded with news and information regarding a presidential election still 14 months away, our northern neighbors are in the midst of an 11-week campaign to determine who will lead their country.
To American readers, an 11-week campaign might sound like a dream (to put it in perspective, our primary calendar will stretch out for 19 weeks in 2016), but it is the longest fed- eral election in modern Canadian history. It is also one that could have impacts on both sides of the border, particularly with trade and environmental issues, according to University of Lethbridge Prof. Harold Janson.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party has held power in the House of Commons for more than a decade, but he is entering this year’s federal election with declining popularity and the Liberal’s Justin Trudeau and the New Democratic Party’s (NDP) Tom Mulcair are hoping to grab the leadership position.
Unlike the U.S., where there are clear separations between the office of president and the legislature, Canada’s government is more mixed. Canadians don’t vote for Prime Minister, instead they elect Members of Parliament (MP) to seats in the House of Commons. MPs are usually part of one of five major parties – Liberal, NDP, Conservative, Green, or Bloc Quebecois (a provincial separatist group). The party with the most MPs is then able to form a government. If they have more than 170 seats, they can form a majority
government but if they have less than that they can form a minority government.
According to the latest polling data from CBC News, the NDP is expected to win 136 seats, the Conservatives 108 seats and the Liberals are expected to grab 93 seats. Most political scientists believe that after the Oct. 19 election, NDP leader Mulcair will have the ability to form a minority government.
But what does that mean for the United States? The NDP falls to the left of the Liberals on the political spectrum. Jan- sen, the political scientist in Lethbridge, said in the past the NDP has come out against major trade deals; however, he notes that since the United States and Canada’s economies are so intertwined it might be impossible for the party to change major policies.
“I don’t think the NDP will expand trade opportunities but I don’t think they would roll them back either,” he said.
One issue an NDP government and the current adminis- tration in the White House could see eye-to-eye on is envi- ronmental policy. Jansen said he wouldn’t be surprised if Mulcair and President Barack Obama worked together to expand efforts to fight climate change.
However, Geoffrey Hale, another University of Leth- bridge political scientist, said it is possible little would change between the two countries because once Canadians elect a new leader this fall, the American presidential election will only be a year away. Hale said he believes little will change until there are new leaders in both Ottawa and Washington, D.C.
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such as the upcoming Canadian elec- tions and the U.S. Federal Reserve decisions on potentially increas- ing interest rates in September, will affect the currency in both nations. If the Canadian currency continues to fall, Townley said, investors will sell their Loonies and buy U.S. dol- lars. And as oil prices continue to fall, speculators go back to the “safe haven” of the greenback, she said.
“We have no control,” Townley said. “Those speculators dominate the market.”
Barkey said he expects the effects of the low oil prices to hit in North Dakota and eastern Montana as well, considering that oil producers there locked in prices when they were still high.
“There’s been a delay before many of them saw the full brunt of the price declines,” Barkey said. “It’s just a delay though.”
With many factors still in play, such as the market unrest in China and Europe, Townley said oil futures and currency rates would likely see continuing changes in coming months.
“The biggest thing is we’ve just got to ride out the storm,” Townley said. “The Canadians are still going to come but in fewer amounts now. There’s still a commitment to this valley, they’re just not coming as much right now.”
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