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BUSINESS IS PERSONAL 34 TRANSACTIONS 33 Business
Labor Report: Unemployment May Be Nearly Nonexistent This Decade State economists warn of Baby Boomer retirements outweighing amount of young workers to fill positions
LABOR DAY REPORT 2015
$38,874
Average wage in Montana
$1,300
Average increase in wage for Montanans over the last year
4%
Montana’s unemployment rate
1%-2%
Expected unemployment rate in Montana within next decade
7,800
Jobs expected to be added per year in 2015 and 2016
5,950
Jobs expected to be added per year from 2017 to 2024
6%
Total of Montana’s workforce already over the age of 65
130,000
Retirements of Montana Baby Boomers in the next 10 years
123,000
Montanans aged 16 to 24, who may or may not choose to enter the state’s workforce
ABY MOLLY PRIDDY OF THE BEACON
s Montanans continue to catch their breath in the wake of the recession, state economists see
a new, pressing issue heading to Big Sky Country: virtually no unemployment within the next decade.
“For several years we’ve heard people talking about the skills shortage (when it comes to unemployment),” Barb Wagner, chief economist at the state Department of Labor and Industry, said. “This goes a step further. There’s just not going to be enough people.”
That’s just one of multiple conclusions reached in the 2015 Labor Day Report from DLI, an annual report on the cur- rent state of Montana’s economy and pro- jections for the future.
This year’s report, released on Aug. 31, touts strong economic growth across the state despite challenges, such as slowed oil-well exploration and the decline in oil prices affecting employment in the east- ern part of the state.
At first blush, the news is optimis- tic: Montana had the sixth-fastest wage growth in the country in the past five- and 10-year timeframes; wages across the state increased by 3.5 percent over the last year to an average of $38,874; personal income rose by 4 percent in the last year, mirroring a 4 percent unem- ployment rate.
But economic growth presents its
own set of problems, according to DLI.
Baby Boomers are expected to retire in
droves within the next decade, totaling
about 130,000, while there are only about in 2015 and 2016, following up with pro- 123,000 Montanans aged 16 to 24, and not jections for nearly 6,000 jobs added each
professional and technical services are likely to skyrocket.
Economists predict the state will add 4,100 workers per year. Even with migration bringing other workers to the state, Montana’s unemployment rate is expected to hit 1 percent to 2 percent in the next 10 years.
“It’s something that has never really happened before in the past,” Wagner said. “When we talk about economic development, it’s usually about capital and trying to bring more money into the market. But it’s a whole different chal- lenge when labor is the constraint.”
The Labor Day Report projections are just that: potential outcomes for the state based on economic and U.S. Census data, Wagner noted. There could be surprises in the next five years, she said, but this was an issue the DLI was watching even before the recession.
“There just aren’t enough people,” Wagner said. “The recession pushed off this critical time for another five years.”
Worker retention will play a major role, and this could include higher wages, ben- efits, and closing the gender wage gap to fully access the female work force, Wag- ner said, and workers’ skills will also have to stay sharp and current.
At the Small Business Administration, a federal entity with offices in the state whose employees help small businesses access and use existing economic tools to their advantage, district director Wayne Gardella said job creation is “always good,” but he would like to see more earn- ings growth through businesses such as manufacturing and trade.
“I want to see Montanans getting into
all of these residents will choose to enter the labor force here.
year from 2017 to 2024, with health care expected to have the highest demands at 1,300 jobs per year through 2024. Construction and mining jobs should hold steady, the economists wrote, and
The state is expected to add 7,800 jobs
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SEPTEMBER 9, 2015 // FLATHEADBEACON.COM