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NEWS
Strong El Nino Could Mean Warmer Winter Despite outlook, meteorologist says snow enthusiasts shouldn’t lose hope
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BY MOLLY PRIDDY OF THE BEACON
Weather and climate experts are pre- dicting a strong El Nino to settle in for the 2015-2016 winter season, with high- er-than-average temperatures expected for the northern Rockies.
The National Oceanic and Atmo- spheric Administration (NOAA) released its U.S. Winter Outlook on Oct. 15, with predictions for one of the strongest El Nino seasons in decades.
Mike Halpert, deputy director at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said El Nino should exert “significant influence” on weather and the climate in the approaching winter. This means above-average temperatures across much of the west and northern half of the contiguous United States, and below average temperatures in the southeast and southern plains.
Last winter showed signs of an El Nino season, National Weather Service meteo- rologist Chris Gibson said from his office in Missoula, but this year’s indicators, such as changing ocean temperatures, show that El Nino is all but guaranteed.
“This year the ocean temperature sig- nals are stronger,” Gibson said, adding that the signals are the strongest since the El Nino of 1950. “The weather pat- terns we expect to lock in this year and be more El Nino related.”
Regarding precipitation, an El Nino
BEACON FILE PHOTO
pattern tends to mean drier-than-av- erage conditions in the Northwest and northern Rockies, while the south- ern tier of the U.S. and southern New England will likely face wetter-than-av- erage conditions.
Halpert said drought is likely to per- sist in the Pacific Northwest and north- ern Rockies, and Gibson said the snow- pack this coming winter will likely stay below average.
“The only thing we can really say about a strong El Nino-type season is that by the end of the season we’re likely to have a below-normal snowpack in the mountains,” Gibson said.
The lack of snowpack would be the result of fewer winter storms than usual, which could mean colder temperatures in the valleys due to a lack of cloud cover. But inversion situations, when the clouds cover the valleys, leave the mountains in the sun, typically warmer and without additional snow.
Both Halpert and Gibson said El Nino predictions are about climate, and don’t necessarily predict the day-to-day and week-to-week weather, so snow enthusi- asts shouldn’t lose hope just yet.
“It doesn’t mean we won’t have winter, by any means,” Gibson said.
Montanans still need to prepare for winter hazards, like tough driving situ- ations, dangerous wind chill, cold out- breaks, and more, he said.
“There’ll still be good powder days for skiing,” Gibson said.
Last year’s winter produced record low snowpack levels across the west- ern U.S., with the only holdouts being in higher elevations in the Rockies. North- west Montana was one of the bright spots in the region, with above normal precipi- tation levels holding true through March.
Low snowpack means reduced streamflow in the spring and summer, and California continues to struggle through a years-long drought. Halpert said El Nino would likely help Califor- nia regain some precipitation this com- ing winter, but not enough to undo the drought’s damage.
“One season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to erase four years of drought,” Halpert said.
For daily weather forecasts, visit www. wrh.noaa.gov/mso.
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Flathead High Schools Compete for $12,000 in
Video Contest
PureWest Christie’s asks students to show what makes life in Montana special
BY CLARE MENZEL OF THE BEACON
Why is life best in Northwest Mon- tana? Students across the Flathead Val- ley are answering that question in a video contest sponsored by PureWest Christie’s International Real Estate. The students who create the winning video segment will take home $7,000 to support their school’s video and technology program.
The contests asks students from seven participating schools to submit a video segment no more than one minute long that answers with a compelling story the question of why Northwest Montana is an amazing place to live, be, and visit.
In the upcoming week, a panel of judges will decide the first place win- ner. The second place segment will win $2,000, third place will receive $1,000, and all contestants will collect $500 for participation.
Each school gets one official
submission, and individual students may also submit videos on their own to the Audience Award Student Division. These video segments will compete for the most votes from online viewers, and the video with the most votes will earn $300 and two Whitefish Mountain Re- sort lift tickets.
The videos all showcase the many opportunities for adventure and explo- ration in Montana.
Brett Owen, representing Polson High School, uploaded a video that opens with time-lapse sunsets and details what makes each season special – the auburn trees of fall, the deep powder of winter, fly fishing in the spring, and summertime on the lake. Competing against Polson is a video uploaded by Jeff Hyer, of Whitefish High School, who used the submission to capture Montana’s beauty, thrills, and breathtaking views, and the experience offindingadventuresherewithfriends.
At the time of this writing, the video with the most Audience Awards views, uploaded by Reece Brandon, focuses on the serenity and wonder of immers- ing oneself in Montana’s beauty. Not far behind in the votes is Jackson Wynne, whose video features voiceover of the classic John Steinbeck quote “‘I’m in love with Montana. For other states I have admiration, respect, recognition, even some affection. But with Montana it is love.”
The voiceover continues: “We in the Flathead Valley know Steinbeck got it right.”
The judges will reveal their decision on November 6 at 6 p.m. at the Flathead High School Auditorium. To vote in the student video contest, log on to Audience Awards at http://theaudienceawards.com/b/ pure-west. Voting closes October 22.
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OCTOBER 21, 2015 // FLATHEADBEACON.COM
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