Page 31 - Flathead Beacon // 10.29.14
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FLATHEADBEACON.COM OPINION UNCOMMON GROUND Mike Jopek
Ten Minutes, Six Years
OCTOBER 29, 2014 | 31
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TUESDAY IS ELECTION DAY. Tuesday’s ballot represents a once in six-year vote on who citi- zens want as the next Montana U.S. sen- ator and Flathead County commission- er. It’s a two-year vote on races like the U.S. and state House.
Republicans are looking at polls with reassurance that their party may again rule Congress.
Recently, Montana State University Billings released a small sample poll – as it has for past decades. The MSUB poll says Republicans are winning the fed- eral statewide races.
The MSUB poll leans right. The 2012 poll indicated that Sen. Jon Tester would lose his reelection big time. Tes- ter won by a large margin. Likewise the 2012 Mason-Dixon poll predicted a Tes- ter loss. Both polls were proven wrong by voters. That hardly means that the polls will be wrong again.
A big obstacle to predicting voter re- sults is voter turnout. When Tester won in 2012, over 72 percent of registered voters in Montana voted. That’s down from the nearly three-quarters of vot- ers who went to the polls four years prior when Barack Obama campaigned in the state.
Tuesday is a midterm election. In the last midterm of 2010, a meager 56 per- cent of registered voters statewide cast a ballot. That Montana Legislature saw a historic number of vetoes from the gov- ernor.
Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer said their policy, “makes some of them look bat-crap crazy.” Former Republican Rep. Walter McNutt told his colleagues to, “quit scaring our constituents and quit letting us look like a bunch of buffoons.”
If many citizens choose not to vote Tuesday, expect some wacky bills to en- sue. Bills to cut Medicare, call for state secession, pay in gold bullions, and man- date counseling for women seeking a di- vorce from a bad situation.
In 2011, more people voted in White- fish than before. Years later, the slate of
younger, more-progressive candidates still serves the municipality well. That’s the point; exercise our right to vote and the next politicians will serve for years.
The conservative MSUB poll held one promising result, opposition to end- ing Election Day voter registration. Re- publicans have been trying to repeal this law since Tester won the U.S. Senate race back in 2006, when lines of younger voters waited hours to cast a ballot.
The MSUB poll indicated 56 percent opposed LR-126. A meager 36 percent fa- vored the Legislature’s referendum, or LR-126 on Tuesday’s ballot. Vote no on LR-126 – the policy targets veterans, se- niors and renters. Voting should remain easy and secure. It’s wrongheaded to make it harder for some citizens to exer- cise their right to vote.
Polls indicate that Rep. Amanda Curtis may lose her bid to become the first Montana woman to serve in the U.S. Senate. But what polls are worse at gaug- ing is how many people will vote. Cur- tis can win if turnout is large like 2004, 2008, 2012, or like 1992 when Bill Clin- ton carried the state.
But if Tuesday’s turnout is dismal like the last midterm in 2010 or near 2006, expect renewed firebrand politics across the state and nation. Policy like dismantling women’s healthcare or pay- ing employees in gold bullions will be in the news.
There are oddly no western Montana Senate debates. Given Curtis’ impressive televised performance last week in Bill- ings, she secured the votes of plenty of undecided Montanans. The MSUB poll, taken before the debate, held 20 percent undecided. Newer polls will differ.
Voting is easy, takes 10 minutes, and it’s up to a six-year choice. Voters may never again have a choice to send a young high school math teacher to fix the mess left by the boys of the 113th Congress. With enough votes on Tuesday, state Rep. Amanda Curtis will be alongside Sen. Jon Tester in the 114th Congress serving middle-class Montanans.
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“IF TUESDAY’S TURNOUT IS DISMAL LIKE THE LAST MIDTERM IN 2010 OR NEAR 2006, EXPECT RENEWED FIREBRAND POLITICS ACROSS THE STATE AND NATION.”
Mike (Uncommon Ground) Jopek and Dave (Closing Range) Skinner often fall on op- posite sides of the fence when it comes to political and outdoor issues. Their columns alternate each week in the Flathead Beacon.


































































































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