Page 29 - Flathead Beacon // 12.3.14

FLATHEADBEACON.COM OPINION CLOSING RANGE Dave Skinner
Popcorn with Butter
DECEMBER 3, 2014 | 29
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GET READY FOR SOME MAJOR squabbling in the 2015 Montana Legislature over public pre- school and Medicaid expansion.
Many states already have pre-kin- dergarten programs, but Montana does not. However, some school districts of- fer pre-K, while the federal government already offers Head Start, targeted at disadvantaged kids who clearly would be better off at school rather than at home.
For parents willing and able to pay the freight, Montana also offers private preschool and daycare. But some are up- set because no “accreditation standards” regulate preschools in Montana (like one needs a degree to raise a kid prop- erly?). So Gov. Steve Bullock, apparently taking his cue from Common Core and President Barack Obama’s State of the Union call for federal funding of univer- sal pre-school, is proposing universal, voluntary pre-K, called “Early Edge.”
The claim is, state pre-K won’t raise taxes because the initial $37 million a year ($3,000 per student) will come out of the general fund pool – in other words, diverted from other general-fund pro- grams. Might those programs be more important state-government functions than providing nursery school? Depends on who you ask – but on Sept. 16, 2014, the interim Education and Local Gov- ernment committee narrowly voted 6-5 not to support Early Edge.
Get the popcorn.
Then there’s a leftover from the 2013 session: Medicaid expansion.
Originally, Obamacare mandated Medicaid expansion to persons making 138 percent or less of the state poverty level, but the Supreme Court made the mandate optional – states can choose to keep their old program and not lose existing Medicaid funding. You know, if states like it, they keep it?
On the surface, the deal seems sweet: Expansion would be initially funded with up to $1.6 billion a year of federal money. Eventually a 10 percent state “co- pay” of around $160 million a year would phase in by 2021. Roughly 70,000 more low-income Montanans would qualify for “free” government health care, and 17,000 more health care workers would be hired.
The Montana Hospital Association supports expansion, for good reason. Currently, healthcare providers are finding themselves on the hook – writing off uncompensated, unpaid-for costs of
$244.9 million. The billing for that care is, however, $401.6 million.
The Service Employees Internation- al Union Healthcare division supports expansion as well, as more jobs mean more union members.
After much sturm und drang, expan- sion failed “narrowly” in 2013’s Legisla- ture. Montana’s “leftstablishment” fol- lowed up with a ballot initiative attempt, failing to gather enough signatures.
So, here it goes again. I waded into a University of Montana Bureau of Busi- ness and Economic Research (BBER) report done for the state auditor’s office, seeking nitty-gritty numbers on expan- sion. It’s actually pretty honest, full of interesting stuff:
In liberal states, 61 percent of Med- icaid-qualified enrollees sign up (ultra blue Massachusetts is at 85 percent). In conservative states, only 54 percent do. What does that imply about “free stuff” that isn’t, and voting habits?
In terms of economic impact, BBER figured 14,400 jobs by 2021 ($636 mil- lion, average wage of $42,000) with $197 million going back in taxes to the state and federal governments – all this pros- perity from a “flow of new federal dollars into the economy.”
While the wages seem fat, I found myself flashing back to overpaid Obam- acare swami John Gruber’s discussion of the “stupidity of the American voter.” Come on, where do new federal dollars come from?
And here’s where it really starts to get thick. “Childless adults” are expect- ed to make up most of the new quali- fieds, and they are “typically less likely to enroll.” With that in mind, the BBER people concluded the higher-cost sce- nario would run $406 million per year, plus six percent in overhead – not so ter- rible compared to $1.6 billion a year.
But at the individual level, BBER found that if expansion happens, and the expected persons enroll – per member Medicaid costs of non-disabled adults in Montana will run $9,504 per year.
Again, we’re talking non-disabled, likely childless grownups – for a two- person household enrolled, their com- bined gross wages could be $21,000 or so – against $19,008 in Medicaid? A single, making $16,000 or so, getting $9,504?
Well, I’m sure some legislators will askwhattheheck...please,morepop- corn, with butter.
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Mike (Uncommon Ground) Jopek and Dave (Closing Range) Skinner often fall on op- posite sides of the fence when it comes to political and outdoor issues. Their columns alternate each week in the Flathead Beacon.
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