Montana’s lone Congressman, Denny Rehberg, appears to have a tougher re-election race on his hands for 2010 than he did in 2008, when he defeated Democrat John Driscoll by a more than 30 percent margin. Driscoll refused to take any campaign donations, and did almost no campaigning. In an interview I did with state Democratic Party Chairman Dennis McDonald in September for a story about Web politics, I could sense his frustration at the minimal campaigning being done by Driscoll, so it wasn’t a huge surprise when McDonald announced his challenge of Rehberg last week. Today, The Billings Gazette reported McDonald would not be seeking re-election as party chair at this summer’s convention.
But the bigger news is that a second Democrat has indicated his intention to challenge Rehberg. Tyler Gernant, a 26-year-old Missoula attorney and fourth-generation Montanan, is also weighing a run for Congress, according to a report by Lee’s Chuck Johnson:
“I want to run for Congress to create and extend opportunities for all Montanans to prosper in Montana,” Gernant said. “My parents were able to give me some great opportunities in my life, and I want to ensure that all Montanans have the same chance at success if they are willing to work toward it.”
To have two Democrats announcing their candidacy in what feels like almost the immediate wake of Rehberg’s healthy re-election indicates Montana Democrats see serious vulnerability in Rehberg’s incumbency, particularly in light of the enormous losses of Congressional seats by the GOP in recent elections. Key to a serious challenge of Rehberg, however, is for Democrats to avoid the mistake of the 2008 primary, when the expected winner, Helena lawyer Jim Hunt, was defeated by Driscoll in an upset. Though Hunt appeared to be the candidate favored by the state party, his primary campaign failed to gain him the name recognition necessary for a primary win. If a Democrat plans to defeat Rehberg in 2010, they need to get out front early. Judging by the nascent stages of this race, it’s a lesson Democrats are taking to heart.