President Barack Obama’s staff may want to rethink focusing on Montana in 2012. The president’s national targeting director Ken Strasma told the blog fivethirtyeight.com in August that he viewed our state as the “no. 1 pick to flip” from red to blue in the next presidential election. But according to an MSU-Billings poll released last week, spending resources here may be a waste of time.
The poll, which has an error margin of five percentage points, found that Obama’s approval rating in Montana is a dismal 37 percent. A large part of his unpopularity can be attributed to the federal economic stimulus package, which was supported by just 28 percent, and the health care bill being debated in Congress, which just 26 percent of the Montanans responding thought would do any good.
The only statistics where the sitting administration and his aides can find comfort is in previous polls on his predecessor. After enjoying steady popularity during his first term in office, former President George W. Bush’s approval rating in Montana didn’t exceed 50 percent once in his second. And during his last two years in office, Bush was especially unpopular; just 32 percent approved of his job performance in 2007 and 28 percent in 2008, according to MSU-Billings.
That same 2008 poll found that Obama was beating then-presidential candidate Sen. John McCain 44-to-40 percent. As it turned out, McCain won the state by a margin of 50-47 percent. Montanans may have had enough of Bush, but still opted to stick with the Republican party, which it has done in every presidential race except one since 1968.
Unless the demographics or mood of the Treasure State changes drastically between now and 2012, Obama’s chances of picking up Montana look slim. Either that, or his pollsters know something that I can’t quite pin down.
Around the same time Strasma said the administration was bullish on Montana, Obama’s Deputy Chief of Staff, and University of Montana alumnus, Jim Messina told Democrats at a summit in Denver that this state and Arizona will be key to the president winning reelection.
His reasoning was similar to Strasma’s, who argued that energy, land management and environmental issues are key to winning over Montana’s electorate. That’s true, but there appears to be little support for strong “cap-and-trade” legislation in Montana, at least from our senior Democratic Sen. Max Baucus, who has voted against the Senate Environment Committee’s version of a climate change bill.
It is perhaps a little early for the Democrats to throw in the towel here. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama, after his recent visit to Bozeman, stays out of Montana for a while unless on vacation. The mood of this state, and much of the country, is especially divisive right now. With some merit, the party in control of Congress and the White House is getting much of the blame for the state of the economy and is losing favor with independents.
Several months from now, if unemployment rates improve; if a sensible health care plan is passed and mostly embraced; if climate change legislation that protects existing jobs while creating green ones gains steam; the president may return to the state that he obviously wants to win as validation that he appeals to parts of the rural West.
If, however, the administration continues to appear as bogged down as the national economy, expect Obama’s poll numbers to reflect those of Bush’s and expect no more photographs of the president fly fishing on the Gallatin River.
Montana is no Ohio. And 2008, when it appeared our three electoral votes mattered as much as that state’s 20, may have been an anomaly. That’s unfortunate for those of us who enjoyed a better view of the horserace.