Last week, the potential for the first federal government shutdown since 1995 gripped Washington, D.C. – and about nobody else. Yes, it would have mattered if a stalemate between Republicans and Democrats had dragged on, but the consequences of that happening were far too high for either party to stomach.
The disagreement, of course, stemmed largely from how much should be cut from the federal budget to deal with the country’s massive deficit. But differences also included policy provisions, such as the GOP’s effort to defund Planned Parenthood and public broadcasting (PBS and NPR) and block the Environmental Protection Agency from regulating greenhouse gases. As The New York Times wrote just 36 hours before the deadline: “On Budget, Leaders Disagree on Where Disagreements Lie.”
So what would have happened if the federal government had shut down? Most people would not have initially noticed unless they worked for the feds. Essential personnel, such as soldiers and border security workers, would remain employed. The mail would still arrive, since the Post Office is owned but not operated by the federal government. Social Security checks would be sent out on time.
On the other hand, the Internal Revenue Service would have closed – meaning if you were expecting a tax return it may have been delayed. Passports wouldn’t be processed. Museums and, most important to our economy, national parks would be closed.
Glacier National Park has begun plowing snow, 140 inches deep in some areas, in preparation for the peak season. That would have stopped if Congress were unable to reach a deal, and the park would have been closed to visitors. So a protracted shutdown would likely have hurt summer tourism.
That’s just one of the reasons it wouldn’t happen. The backlash to a shutdown in this economy would be brutal, and neither party has the political will to sustain it. Politicians were, however, very willing to pin blame for last week’s gridlock.
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester said the Republican house speaker was being pressured to “punish our constituents to prove a political point.”
Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg pointed at the Senate and White House. “After failing to do its job to prevent a shutdown for more than six months, the Senate and the White House are just saying no,” he said.
Democratic Sen. Max Baucus was less specific: “Our tough choices have to be smart choices that restore financial security to our working families – not pull the rug out from them as our economy is starting to recover.”
Voters who were paying attention weren’t taking sides. According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 37 percent of Americans would have blamed Republicans for a shutdown, 20 percent Democrats, 20 percent President Barack Obama administration and 17 percent all three.
In the end, the parties reached an 11th-hour budget deal. Soon thereafter, pundits (and politicians themselves) declared who won and lost in the hard-fought budget battle. And just about every star in this political drama was patting themself on the back for avoiding a shutdown. Congratulations? On doing your job?
We’re told an even bigger budget fight lies ahead. This time, the president and Congress will outline their respective long-term (instead of short-term) plans to reduce the country’s deficit. The two sides will then spend much of the spring selling those plans to the American people, which sounds pretty awful.
It’s hard not to be captivated by stories accompanied by headlines that blare “shutdown” and “default.” But if this latest “battle” was any indication, expect the next one to end the same way … with lots of declared “winners” … for not shutting down the government. Apparently, the bar has been lowered