Last week’s record high temperatures in Kalispell and an outbreak of grass fires on the Blackfeet Indian Reservation have supported the common perception that this winter has been abnormally warm and dry. And statistics from the National Weather Service back that up.
The La Niña weather system that was forecasted to return, and bring an abundance of snow along with it, hasn’t yet. Early January is typically the midway point for snowfall accumulation, and current totals in and around Kalispell are the third lowest since information started being gathered in 1948, according to NWS. Overall snowpack levels in the Flathead River Basin are currently 34 percent below average through Jan. 9. Average snowpack levels on a statewide level are 19 percent below normal.
Kalispell precipitation levels are currently the 10th lowest on record and the lowest since 2001. The overall precipitation average in the Flathead River Basin is less severe, but still 17 percent below average.
Temperatures have been even more startling. The average high temperatures for winter months in Kalispell have been the warmest since 2004 and the ninth highest overall since the early 1900s. The high temperature of 50 degrees on Jan. 4 was the second highest temperature on record for Kalispell during January. It broke a previous record of 47 degrees for that day set in 1902. Several cities across the state have also broken or reached record temperatures in recent weeks, including four cities in western Montana.
In terms of cloud cover, Kalispell has seen more sunshine than normal. During the month of December, Kalispell historically averages 26 days where 80 percent of the sky is covered with clouds. This year there were only 14.
Bob Nester, an incident meteorologist with the National Weather Service based in Missoula, said these abnormal figures are not as alarming as one would think, and the possibility still remains that La Niña could bring more moisture this winter.
“We’re still in an overall seasonal La Niña pattern,” Nester said. “The La Niña just didn’t turn out to be as strong as was forecast originally.”
Nester said there are signs that the coming weeks could look a lot more like winter, meaning more snowfall and colder temperatures.
“We’re looking for an overall pattern change in the next weeks for more weather systems,” he said. “It could be favorable for snow.”
However, as it goes with all forecasting, he added the disclaimer: “It’s really hard to tell exactly.”
An arrival of moisture would be welcome news for more than the ski community. Recent wildfires highlighted the dangers that arise from a dry winter. Two fires on the Blackfeet Reservation combined to scorch 18,000 acres in less than 24 hours last week.
High winds and limited or no snow cover can lead to fires early in the year. That has happened in past, but not often, according to Steve Frye, the area operations manager for the Northwest Land Office of the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation in Kalispell.
Frye remembers a similar winter fire in Alberta in 2003 but can’t pinpoint a recent example in western Montana.
“I would say we’ve probably had similar weather conditions in the past,” he said. “There have been midwinter fires in the past.”
The current situation isn’t yet cause for alarm because spring could still see high moisture levels like in previous years, Frye said.
Nester agreed, saying low snowpack levels do not necessarily equate to a big summer fire season. Other factors to consider are springtime moisture, soil moisture, and the presence of ignition sources like lightning.
“(Snow pack) is one ingredient. It does play somewhat of a role,” he said. “We still have three months for potential snowpack in the mountains. Typically with La Niña, we have cooler than normal springs. That would help reduce the runoff of snow.”
A recent news release from the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service reports that the current conditions across the state compare similarly to two seasons ago. That year was dry until high moisture levels arrived in the spring of 2010.
In order to recover to average levels, winter precipitation would need to be roughly 120 percent of average going into the spring months, according to Brian Domonkos, a snow water supply specialist with NRCS.
“A lot can still change and hopefully it will,” Domonkos said. “For this time of year, it’s still pretty early to start throwing red flags. If you get three months down the road then we’ll start taking precautions.”
RELATED: Scorched Earth