The differences between Jon Tester’s current U.S. Senate reelection bid and his initial campaign in 2006 against Republican incumbent Conrad Burns are both obvious and numerous. The tables are turned and Tester is now the incumbent facing a formidable challenge.
Of all the differences between the two campaigns, one of the most significant for Tester is the fact that today he is often waging the battle from Washington D.C. As he reminded last week in an interview with the Beacon, he still has a pretty important full-time job in D.C. that requires his attention. His day-to-day responsibilities in the Senate remain his top priority, he said, and they keep him plenty busy.
“It takes away my time to get on the campaign trail,” Tester said, drawing a contrast to his 2006 race.
Tester is engaged in one of the highest-profile federal races in the country, with Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg posing a serious challenge to Tester’s Senate seat. Like Tester, Rehberg must find the balance between campaigning and his many duties in Congress.
Both men have made it a point to visit the state as frequently as possible when their D.C. obligations allow. Tester still works his farm near the eastern Montana town of Big Sandy and Rehberg owns a ranch and development near Billings.
On a recent trip to Montana, Tester stopped by the Beacon office on May 4 to talk about his race with Rehberg, which seems as tight and unpredictable as when it first began.
Two polls were released last week telling very different stories about the race. Public Policy Polling released a survey on May 1 showing Tester with a 5-point lead over Rehberg at 48-43 percent. Then two days later, Rasmussen Reports released a poll that put Rehberg up 10 points at 53-43 percent.
Up until those two surveys, polls had consistently shown the race to be very tight, with Rehberg usually leading though barely. The first three surveys from PPP each gave Rehberg a 2-point lead. Two earlier Rasmussen polls, including one in April, showed Rehberg maintaining a 47-44 percent lead. A poll commissioned by the Montana Chamber of Commerce in November gave Tester a 5-point lead at 42-37 percent.
Rehberg, a six-term congressman, must first win his primary before advancing to the general election. He faces a challenge from Dennis Teske, a Terry farmer and political unknown who isn’t expected to pose a threat to Rehberg. Teske has raised little money and his profile remains low statewide.
Jerry McConnell, a retired businessman from Missoula, and Dan Cox, who owns a fishing tackle business in Hamilton, will both appear on general election ballots as Libertarians.
Tester has been the money leader throughout the race and at last count had $4.3 million in his campaign bank account compared to Rehberg’s $2.7 million. But Rehberg raised about the same amount as Tester – $1.2 million – over the most recent three-month reporting period that ended in March.
In this race of great national interest, however, the candidates’ money will be and has often been overshadowed by the millions of dollars coming from third parties.
Factoring in both Rehberg’s campaign funds and the outside money, Tester said last week, despite his campaign’s large bank account, “we just can’t outspend them” and he must be prepared to try to win the election based on his legislative record rather than money.
“In the end,” Tester said, “I think it’s going to come down to what we’ve done.”