In January the Montana GOP will decide whether to join a lawsuit that seeks to close the party’s primaries to only registered members. What it decides may indicate the tenor of the looming Legislature and future of the state’s Republicans, including lawmakers such as Kalispell Sen. Bruce Tutvedt.
Ravalli County Republicans filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court asking to close its primaries, and four other county groups have joined the suit. Now the state party will decide whether to back it as well. This decision comes at a time when divisions among local Republicans have again surfaced. Recently, the Flathead County GOP officially censured one of its members, Tutvedt, and accused him of attacking candidates of his own party “using deceptive, inflammatory and unethical allegations.”
For his part, Tutvedt called the accusations a “meaningless public charade” issued by a “kangaroo court.” Regardless, Tutvedt has previously butted heads with his party members and his plight may be one reason the GOP is considering closing its primary.
To be sure, several other states have closed primaries, and Tutvedt is not the only lawmaker accused of straying too far from the party line. But if the GOP joins the suit, and it’s successful, it will be interesting to gauge the party’s primary turnout and see whether lower participation squeezes out more moderate members.
It’s an open secret – just compare primary to general election numbers – that Democrats and Independents vote in Republican primaries in the Flathead. For instance, in the 2014 general election, GOP candidates garnered about 65 percent of the vote in countywide races, a large amount. But compare that to the primary, in which about 80 percent of Flathead voters filled out a Republican ballot.
In fact, in 2012 Tutvedt faced a more conservative primary opponent, Rollan Roberts II, and nearly lost. He eked out a victory with 45 percent of the vote to 43.6 percent after about 85 percent of voters in that district filled out a Republican ballot. Tutvedt won the general election, but this time with 70 percent of the vote. So-called crossover voting is certainly happening, what the GOP must decide is whether eliminating (or greatly reducing) it is worth the cost.
The potential price of closing Montana’s primaries could be high, especially if the Democrats keep theirs open. There’s a chance of alienating conservative voters who are reluctant to declare party membership. There’s a chance of choosing less electable statewide candidates since closed primaries often produce more hardline victors. There’s a chance that the party will no longer have room for lawmakers like Tutvedt, or others who right now call themselves “responsible Republicans.”
For many in the GOP, ridding itself of candidates who they perceive as unprincipled is not necessarily a bad thing. In 2012, former Republican lawmaker Jeff Laszloffy openly attacked Tutvedt with mailers and ads in the run up to the primary. Laszloffy also took aim at incumbent Republican Sen. Carmine Mowbray of Polson and she lost.
The most recent censure aimed at Tutvedt alleges that he used “dark money expenditures against fellow Republicans who had expressed their concerns about the CSKT Water Compact as currently written.” Tutvedt has openly supported the contract, which is opposed by many of his colleagues.
The compact is one of several issues that may split Republicans when the Legislative Session begins next month. The question is whether the party will accept those divisions, accept the fact that crossover voters elect some of its more moderate lawmakers, or become more homogeneous in both its members and policies. With sizable majorities in both the House and Senate, the GOP’s frustration with its own legislators who align with Democrats on far-reaching policies is understandable. Now it must weigh the cost of a potential solution.