As one of the least populated states in the country, Montana has a knack for attracting rapt national attention when a U.S. Senate seat opens up, thanks to its potential to help decide which party controls the powerful 100-member chamber.
The 2012 race between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat, and his Republican challenger, Congressman Denny Rehberg, was one of the most expensive elections in the nation that year, with an unprecedented $40 million spent between the candidates and outside groups.
Outside money is once again flowing into this year’s race between Tester and Republican Matt Rosendale, the current state auditor and insurance commissioner. Tester sees parallels between the Rehberg battle and his current one.
“The races are very similar in feel,” Tester said in an interview last week.
Rosendale is vying to join a short list of Republican U.S. senators to win office in Montana. Steve Daines’ victory in 2014 made him the first Republican to hold that Senate seat in Montana since 1913, a 100-year Democratic domination that stands as one of the longest unbroken occupations of a Senate office by one party in U.S. history.
Meanwhile, over that same century-plus period, only two Republicans have been elected to Montana’s other Senate seat, the one Rosendale is seeking: Zales Ecton, who served one term from 1947-1953, and Conrad Burns, who served three terms from 1989 to 2007 before Tester defeated him in a tight race.
For his part, Tester is trying to join Thomas J. Walsh, Burton K. Wheeler, James E. Murray, Mike Mansfield, Lee Metcalf and Max Baucus in the pantheon of Montana Democrats to win at least three U.S. Senate races.
Each candidate is attempting to cast the other as out of touch with Montana voters, albeit in different ways, in a race that remains close.
Tester’s campaign is portraying Rosendale as a Maryland real estate developer who owns an eastern Montana ranch but doesn’t work it. Tester points to his background as a farmer from Big Sandy who lost three fingers in a meat-grinder incident as a contrast to Rosendale, who the Democrat says has “made millions in real estate development” and “claims to be a rancher but has no cows.”
“He doesn’t really understand rural America,” Tester said. “This is a race between people who are very different than each other, and more and more people are figuring that out.”
Rosendale has depicted Tester as a member of the Washington D.C. political establishment who has lost touch with his Montana roots. The Republican said in an Oct. 13 debate, the final of two debates between the candidates, that Tester is more closely aligned with Senate Democrats than Montana constituents.
“This is what happens when you spend too much time in the federal government,” Rosendale said. “He’s been there for 12 years, and he thinks that he can determine what is best for you and what is best for your family. And I don’t think so.”
President Donald Trump looms large in this race, with Trump outwardly supporting Rosendale and Tester lauding the bills he has passed with final approval of the president’s pen.
“I don’t know that (Trump) truly appreciates the 20 bills I’ve put on his desk,” Tester said, adding: “At a lot of these rallies, he’s talking about my bills.”
Trump has taken aim at Tester since the Democrat helped derail the confirmation of Ronny Jackson, the president’s pick to head up the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. Trump is rallying on behalf of Rosendale in Missoula this week, the president’s third visit to the state. Vice President Mike Pence and Donald Trump Jr. have also appeared in Montana to support Rosendale.
Rosendale is casting himself as far more in line with Trump’s priorities in a state that Trump carried by 20 points in the 2016 presidential election.
“This visit is one for the history books and if every Trump supporter does their part and supports our campaign then Montana is going to make history again and retire Jon Tester this November,” Rosendale said in a statement announcing Trump’s most recent Montana visit.
The candidates have clearly differentiated themselves on health care. For one, Tester voted to approve the Affordable Care Act, which Rosendale wants to see repealed.
Tester has also sponsored legislation to bolster coverage requirements for preexisting conditions and railed against short-term insurance plans, which he calls a “sham,” while Rosendale has supported such plans as alternatives to traditional coverage and lower-cost options. As insurance commissioner, Rosendale supported Medi-Share in Montana, a Christian ministry health care cost-sharing program that Tester opposes.
Rosendale has taken a hardline approach to immigration, supporting a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and opposing sanctuary cities. Tester, however, has received the endorsement of the National Border Patrol Council. Among Rosendale’s notable endorsements is the National Rifle Association.
Tester is touting his track record as ranking member of the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee and his efforts on behalf of veterans, while Rosendale has vowed to fight for veterans and streamline the VA. Rosendale supports more local control of education decisions, with Tester countering that he opposes “privatization” of schools.
In his unsuccessful 2014 run for the U.S. House, Rosendale spoke in favor of transferring public lands from the federal government to the state, but he says he no longer supports such transfers. At the most recent debate, Rosendale said he would support abolishing the U.S. Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Agency.
Tester opposes the transfer of public lands, and says he has a record of promoting collaborative approaches among diverse stakeholders to land management.
Tester has outraised Rosendale $14 million to $2 million, but millions of third-party dollars have flooded into the race on behalf of both candidates, filling airwaves and TV screens with political advertisements as the Nov. 6 election approaches.
In both of Tester’s previous races, a Libertarian candidate — Stan Jones in 2006 and Dan Cox in 2012 — took a share of the vote, with Jones securing 2.55 percent and Cox getting 6.56 percent. Yet again, a third-party Libertarian, Rick Breckenridge, will be on the ballot.
Rosendale says he’s ready to promote Trump’s agenda in the Senate and build on the president’s record.
“We need to send President Trump the reinforcements he needs to build the wall, confirm more constitutional judges, and protect our gun rights,” Rosendale said.
Tester is confident his own record will ultimately win the day.
“I feel good about our chances, and I feel we’re going to win it because I have a record I can campaign on,” Tester said.