Sheehy Takes Marginal Lead in Senate Race, New Polling Shows
A poll conducted this week shows Republican candidate Tim Sheehy taking a slim lead over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. With Sheehy’s marginal edge, the polling reinforced the neck and neck nature of the high-stakes Senate election.
By Denali Sagner
Republican businessman and Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is polling slightly ahead of Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in the competitive race for U.S. Senate, a new poll from Emerson College and The Hill showed.
According to the poll, which was conducted earlier this month, 48% of 1,000 polled voters support Sheehy, compared to 46% who support Tester. Five percent of voters reported being undecided.
The results mark a shift from a March poll in which 44% of voters reported supporting Tester, compared to 42% who supported Sheehy and 14% who said they were undecided.
Though the poll showed Sheehy edging ahead of Tester, both campaigns on Thursday doubled down on the close nature of the race, acknowledging how much work lies ahead for the candidates leading up to Election Day. Sheehy’s lead is within the margin of error, and Montana is historically difficult to poll, given the state’s rural nature and independent political streak.
“Jon Tester is no stranger to tough races. He’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans. Jon’s strong record of defending Montana is why earlier this week, Montana Republicans from across the state – from elected officials to business owners to Trump voters – endorsed Jon in his campaign for Senate,” Harry Child, spokesperson for Montanans for Tester, said in a statement.
A spokesperson for Sheehy provided the following statement, “Tim is honored by the growing support from Montanans, but winning this race will take all Montanans standing up and fighting to save our country and finally retire Jon Tester for good. We know Jon Tester – the number-one recipient of lobbyist cash – will do and say anything to save his political career, but no amount of dishonesty, ads, and liberal dark money can hide Tester’s record of voting for the disastrous Biden-Harris agenda 95% of the time.”
Tester, a three-term Democratic senator, is fighting to defend his place in Congress amid a reddening political landscape in Montana, while Republican leaders are looking to use Sheehy’s candidacy to regain control of the Senate. The race has brought in over $57 million, with Tester outraising Sheehy three-to-one. The Cook Political Report has rated Montana one of four “toss up” Senate races in the country, alongside Michigan, Nevada and Ohio.
Montana’s Republican Sen. Steve Daines, who is also the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the committee tasked with electing Republicans to the Senate, told reporters last week that recent polling showing Sheehy “tied up” with Tester bodes well for the Republican. He said an influx of new, conservative-leaning residents will help Sheehy beat the incumbent.
A Montana Democratic political strategist told the Beacon, however, that “the race is not shifting as dramatically as this poll would have you believe,” citing historical issues with polling in rural areas like Montana, where voters can be hard to reach and traditional two-party labels often do not fit residents’ political profiles. The strategist added that Tester’s races “are always tight” and that this reelection bid will likely be “tied up until the very end.”
Tester beat U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale by around 18,000 votes in his 2018 reelection bid. In 2012, Tester beat U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg by a similar margin.
Montana GOP Chairman Don “K” Kaltschmidt said in a statement, “Montanans see right through Two-Faced Tester, who is a rubber-stamp for Chuck Schumer and the far left agenda. He votes 95% of the time with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for reckless spending, open borders, and putting illegal immigrants ahead of veterans. Come November, Montana voters will retire Jon Tester for good.”
Pollsters asked a number of other questions, including how Montanans feel about political issues and the job performance of various elected officials.
Top issues identified by Montana voters were the economy (40%), housing affordability (27%), threats to democracy (10%), immigration (6%), healthcare (5%) and abortion access (4%).
Polling also found that 55% of Montana voters plan to support former President Donald Trump in November, whereas 40% plan to support Vice President Kamala Harris. With third-party candidates included on the ballot, 54% support Trump, 39% support Harris, 5% support independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 3% are undecided.
“Since the March 2024 Emerson poll in Montana, Trump’s support has decreased a point, while Harris improved five points on Biden’s 35%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Harris has picked up ground among women voters — 47% support Harris compared to 40% who supported Biden, while Trump maintains around 61% support among male voters. Voters with college degrees have also flipped; in March, they broke for Trump by seven points, now breaking for Harris by seven.”
Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points in 2020 and 20 percentage points in 2016.
Biden holds a 31% approval rating. Harris is viewed favorably by 42% of polled Montana voters. Trump is viewed favorably by 55% of Montana voters.
Polling also found that 41% of voters approve of Gov. Greg Gianforte’s job in office, while the same percentage disapproves of his job.