Economic Uncertainty and International Tensions Prompt Decline in Flathead Valley Tourism

Local tourism officials expect economic volatility and international tensions to continue to slow travel demand to the Flathead Valley.

Diane Medler, the executive director of Discover Kalispell, said at a May 20 Kalispell Chamber of Commerce luncheon that data is revealing hesitancy toward spending due to economic uncertainty and negative feedback from Canadian travelers.  

“The economic uncertainty is having an impact on travelers,” Medler said. “The data is showing that travelers are being very careful with their money due to recession fears.”

According to Future Partners travel data, 55% of survey respondents said they are “greatly impacted” by concerns about inflation and nearly 70% expect to change their travel behavior by cutting back on trips, choosing more affordable locations and driving instead of flying.

In 2024, nonresident visitation increased 9% statewide, but overall spending declined by 8% as travelers opted for lower-cost destinations, according to a recent report by the University of Montana’s Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research (ITTR).

In addition to the economic factors impacting domestic travel, international travel to the United States is expected to fall by 9.4% in 2025.

“The international travel decline is seen primarily from the decrease in travel by Canadians,” Medler said. “There was a sharp decline since January.”

Medler said that despite the close bond Montana has historically shared with its northern neighbor, Canadians are avoiding travel as fears of a “daunting border crossing experience” top their concerns.

Compared to last year, she said the U.S.-Canada border at Roosville in Eureka saw a 22% year-over-year decrease in passenger border crossings from February through April.

According to credit card data, there was a 46% decrease in Canadian spending in Kalispell from February through March compared to last year during that same time frame, while there was a 73% decrease in Canadian hotel bookings from January through March.

Kalispell has seen some large-scale losses already as hotels report cancellations from Canadian residents. One hotel, according to Medler, reported a $38,000 revenue loss from a single tour group cancelation, which included a one-night booking of 69 rooms and a 200-person dinner. Hotels are also reporting cancelations from Canadian youth sports teams.

“It’s significant,” Melder said. “Lots of different businesses are starting to feel that. We need signals from both governments that cross-border friendships and our economic partnerships still matter, and without that, no amount of marketing is going to help right now.”

While Medler said some Canadians will likely still visit – especially those with second homes in the United States – the cross-border tensions have caused the tourism bureau to stop advertising in Canada following negative feedback.

 “We are receiving messages from our long-time followers of Discover Kalispell who live in Canada that they love the Flathead Valley, but they’re staying home for now,” Medler said.

Despite an anticipated slow year, tourism experts are optimistic about the “mega events” coming to the United States over the next four years, which are expected to bring international travelers to surrounding areas.

This July, major international soccer games will be played in Seattle and Los Angeles – cities that have direct flights to Kalispell – while the FIFA World Cup is coming in 2026. Los Angeles is also hosting the summer Olympic Games in 2028 while promotion for America’s 250th birthday – promoted as America250 – is expected to bring more tourism to national parks.

U.S. Travel is anticipating 40 million international travelers over the next decade for mega events as officials advocate for air travel improvements like airport security and air traffic control systems.

“How can your business benefit?” Medler asked the audience.

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