It’s no wonder Montanans are buried in an avalanche of political commercials on live television and streaming platforms.
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has just examined five competitive 2026 U.S. Senate races—including Montana’s—that rely on “smaller media markets” where advertising costs “are lower and your money can buy more.”
Oh boy, just what we need.
For background, the numerous local media markets in this country are ranked in size from 1 to 210. Generally the smaller the market the more affordable the ad buys.
“Given its sprawling size, Montana is covered by nine media markets,” the center points out. “Fun fact: Montana is home to the nation’s smallest media market, No. 210 Glendive.”
Regardless of size, each market proves crucial in getting a Montana political candidate’s name, face and manifesto in front of voters that in this case are spread—as Irving Berlin wrote in his patriotic song—from the mountains to the prairies.
The county seat of Kalispell and surrounding Flathead Valley doesn’t merit its own media market, rather falls within the “Missoula Designated Market Area”—a combined 122,000 households and 235,000 viewers that ranks 162nd nationally.
That said, the Missoula-Kalispell market is significant by Montana standards: it’s larger than Billings (165th), Butte-Bozeman (185th), Great Falls (191st), and the state capital of Helena (205th).
The cost of placing a 30-second political ad varies in these markets, allowing for the number of spots purchased, time slots (primetime and major sporting events among the most expensive), style of the ad, its source (local or national, ie., a PAC), the competitiveness of a race, and going rates for the various broadcast outlets.
Therefore for a half-minute time slot, we’re talking anywhere from a few thousand bucks to $10,000 or more. And don’t forget production costs beforehand, with the higher quality advertisements equating to miniature movies.
But with these comparably affordable ad rates, and priority of a political party to hold a majority on Capitol Hill, it’s easy to see why smaller Montana’s 2024 election cycle ranked fourth in the nation for dollars spent on advertising.
(Don’t look now, but these ongoing 2026 midterm elections are projected to be the most expensive in political advertising history, with an estimated $2.5 billion earmarked for live TV and streaming platforms).
It’s highly doubtful Montana’s 2026 Senate election will surpass the record-setting expenditures of the previous slugfest between incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and GOP victor Tim Sheehy, which saw umpteen Washington insiders and special advocacy groups pour outside money (and ads) into the state.
Total cash spent: $275 million and change (several hundred dollars for every vote cast).
No sooner did that gold dust settle and here we are again, about to send another new Montana senator into a far slimier swamp of Washington (never trust a president who vows to drain the swamp, it ain’t happening).
With June’s primaries behind us, Montana’s Senate contest does feature a unique political twist: an “Independent” candidate for once, Seth Bodnar, who actually stands a chance of out-gunning the Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead, if not Republican newcomer Kurt Alme.
“[Some] Democrats are hoping that Bodnar, a former University of Montana president, can become a significant challenger to Alme, a former U.S. Attorney making his first run for electoral office, following a controversially timed retirement by Republican Steve Daines,” the center points out.
That said, without either Bankhead or Bodnar bowing out of the race (which doesn’t appear likely anytime soon), the pair will end up splitting whatever votes don’t go to Alme, ensuring Montana—granted the GOP is victorious in its two House races—remains scarlet red come November.
Until then, prepare for no shortage of political ads, which has become a given if you want to effect change in this era of deep polarization in Montana and beyond.
As the late Republican congressman Bruce Fairchild Barton, who before entering politics was a newspaper reporter and advertising executive, explained it:
“In good times people want to advertise; in bad times they have to.”
John McCaslin is a longtime journalist and author who lives in Bigfork.