President Trump was recently exposed to Greek history when China’s President Xi Jinping inquired, “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?”
The “Thucydides Trap” is a political theory that holds that a rapidly rising power threatens to displace an established, dominant power, usually leading to war.
The Greek historian Thucydides observed that the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta created a recipe for future wars. He wrote: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Nothing like Greek history to nail it.
Trump is no student of history, especially Greek history. He needed the Greek reference explained to him. But perhaps Trump can grasp Greek mythology and better understand the dilemma he is facing in Iran by watching Christopher Nolan’s movie, “The Odyssey.”
The Odyssey follows the mythological adventure of the Greek king Odysseus on his 10-year journey back to Ithaca after the ten-year Trojan War. After angering the sea god Poseidon, Odysseus faced other angry Greek gods and goddesses, especially the goddess-sorceress Circe, trying to prevent his journey home.
When Odysseus and his crew landed on the island of Aeaea, the home of Circe, his crew was lured to Circe’s palace by her beautiful singing. She offered the men food and wine laced with magical drugs and then transformed them into swine.
When Odysseus goes to rescue them, he first receives guidance from the god Hermes, who provides him with a magical herb, “moly”. Immune to Circe’s sorcery and magic potions, Odysseus draws his sword and demands that she free his men. Circe turns the crew back into humans.
Circe and Odysseus then become lovers, and the crew is treated to luxurious hospitality for a year. When Odysseus finally decides to depart, Circe—now a helpful ally—provides him with advice on how to navigate the strait between Scylla and Charybdis.
Scylla and Charybdis were two inescapable sea monsters guarding the narrow strait (often identified as the Strait of Messina between Italy and Sicily).
Charybdis was a massive, violent whirlpool that swallowed and spit out seawater multiple times a day. Scylla was a terrifying, six-headed beast who lived in a cave on a high cliff. Because they were located on opposite sides of the narrow passage, passing ships were forced to navigate between them.
Circe advises Odysseus to steer closer to Scylla. While he would lose six men to her heads, it was far better than risking the Charybdis whirlpool, which would destroy his ship and crew. Today, the phrase is frequently used in everyday language, literature, and politics to describe a “lesser of two evils” choice.
With the narrow Strait of Hormuz giving Trump fits, he is “Caught between Scylla and Charybdis.” It is a crisis of Trump’s own making. No Greek gods or goddesses are coming to Trump’s aid. NATO is steering clear of the troubling waters as well.
Trump is faced with trying to bring Iran to heel by military means, which has the potential to set the Middle East and the world economy on fire. His other option is attempting to negotiate a treaty with a country known for its negotiating skills and treachery.
Seventeen American service members have already died, and numerous others have been injured. Our military bases throughout the Middle East have sustained significant damage and destruction. We have spent well over $100 billion, and the tab is growing. With the renewed hostilities, America’s sacrifices and costs will continue to grow, both militarily and domestically.
The first casualty of war is truth. Trump’s administration has continuously lied to us about his war of choice. His lies are similar to the lies told by the Johnson and Nixon administrations during Vietnam and the Bush administration on the Iraq war.
Even Odysseus lied to his crew. Lest we forget, Odysseus is the only one to return home. All the rest perished. It seems to be the nature of wars.
Tom Muri is a fifth-generation Montanan and retired military JAG Officer writing from Montana and Arizona. He grew up in Whitefish.