If you’re not a farmer or rancher, you might not think about how much water soils can hold. But in Montana’s fertile valleys, three feet of silty soil can hold a foot of water.
Two-thirds of that water is available to plants, and that eight inches alone can support a decent wheat crop without irrigation. It turns out the average rainfall during April-June in the Gallatin Valley is about eight inches, and with a little sunshine and not too much heat, crops will grow.
This past winter we experienced what’s called a “snow drought” – precipitation amounts were near-average but warm temperatures melted snow below 8,000 feet between December and March. The outlook was grim for crops because low-elevation soils were so dry.
But in April to June, rainfall across the state exceeded average spring amounts. The only hitch was that the lower-elevation snow was gone by March, and high-elevation snowmelt wasn’t enough to make up the difference. As a result, river flows peaked at 60% of normal, followed by a summer of low water.
Meanwhile, hot summer temperatures meant that winter crops planted the previous fall did well, but spring-planted crops were devastated in parts of the state that saw July temperatures over 100 degrees for multiple days.
In most years, soils are wet from snowmelt even before the spring rains start. Wet soils transmit water to groundwater, where it is stored for years to centuries or longer. In 2026, lack of low- and mid-elevation snow reduced this source of groundwater and raised alarms about how reduced soil moisture will affect water supplies in the long run.
In 2017, the Montana Climate Assessment predicted exactly the climate conditions that we’re experiencing now: warmer and drier winters, wetter springs, hotter summers. Although we can chalk climate projections up to uncertainty and choose not to believe them, our choice to dramatically increase greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has created the climate conditions responsible for seasonal soil-water shortages.
Unfortunately, the winter of 2025-26 revealed a pattern that will become more frequent in the coming decades.
When I started at MSU in 2010, we lacked on-the-ground observations of soil moisture and snow at lower elevations. Now, the Montana Mesonet hosts 244 stations on private and public land, providing real-time soil-moisture data that my research group uses for soil-water modeling, and drought forecasts that all of us can view online. With the addition of machine-learning techniques, predictions of soil water and weather are getting more precise every day.
Climate forecasts make it clear that rising temperatures will increasingly reduce our winter snowpack, speed up snowmelt, and make summers hotter. Even if the total amount of water from rain and snow remains steady, increasingly warm winters and hot summers will effectively reduce it. Water levels in private wells that supply drinking water to a third of Montanans will inevitably fall and force hard conversations in our communities. Non-irrigated wheat production, a $920 million industry in our state, along with the management of our 68 million acres of rangelands, will be challenged.
I have two suggestions.
First, support our Montana state Legislature in doing critical work on water issues, including funding agencies to monitor and characterize groundwater and install stream gages to track flow.
Second, advocate for the water that’s important to you. Understand where your drinking water comes from, and if you have a well, read the well log and get the water tested at MSU.
The choices we make today will determine whether our children inherit a state with running rivers and productive soils, or just a memory of winter snow.
Dr. Stephanie Ewing is director of the Montana Water Center and a professor of soil science in the Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences at Montana State University. Her research focuses on soil health and movement, storage, and composition of soil water, surface water, and groundwater.