With Summer Spending Flat, Whitefish Tourism Industry Eyes Winter Forecasts

Stretching from May through the end of September, paid lodging occupancy in Whitefish was roughly flat compared to the previous year, and bookings for the winter season are down so far compared to last year, according to data presented at a recent Whitefish community meeting on tourism.

Compared to 2023, June occupancy was down 6%, July was even, August was up 3% and September was down 1%. Limited data on short-term rental occupancy showed June occupancy up about 3% over the previous year, July only up 1% over the previous year, and August up 2% over the previous year.

Presenting these statistics was Julie Mullins, the executive director for Explore Whitefish. Also known as the Whitefish Convention and Visitors Bureau, Explore Whitefish is a local organization that works to encourage tourists to visit Whitefish, while also trying to manage some of the issues caused by a tourism economy. Mullins’ presentation was part of an Oct. 16 town hall event organized by the Whitefish Sustainable Tourism Management Plan Committee (STMPC).

The roughly 90-minute event included a panel with Whitefish Mountain Resort President Nick Polumbus, Open Snow weather forecaster Bob Ambrose, Rob Spence, the vice president and general manager of Pursuit – Glacier Park Collection, and Edna White, the marketing director for Averill Hospitality, which owns The Lodge at Whitefish Lake, The Firebrand Hotel and The Pine Lodge.

The town hall was part of ongoing efforts from STMPC to conduct public outreach on the benefits of a tourism economy, including by hosting biannual community meetings with panel discussions and tourism updates.

A similar meeting in April included a presentation on a survey that had been conducted in the fall of 2023 that showed community attitudes toward tourism were becoming increasingly negative. Of the 936 respondents, when people were asked if they thought tourism made Whitefish a good place to live, 22% agreed and 54% disagreed. Six years earlier, in 2018, the same question elicited a positive response from 60% of people surveyed.

Still, Mullins’ organization continues to make the case for the economic importance of tourism in Whitefish. “Card spend” data from Visa Destination, which Mullins said tracks credit card transactions and accounts for an estimated 68% of the domestic market share, shows year-to-date visitor spending has accounted for 58% of spending in Whitefish this year. In 2023, it accounted for 57%, and in 2022 it accounted for 60%. Those card spend totals show visitors so far this year have spent roughly $61 million in Whitefish, compared to $62 million in 2023 and $69 million in 2022.

Similar to the previous meeting, Mullins emphasized that Whitefish continues to experience shoulder seasons that bring a drop off in economic activity as tourism slows down. But Mullins said that she is working with community partners to build short-term opportunities for businesses in October during the fall shoulder season.

In one example, Mullins pointed to Downtown in the Round, a rebranded continuance of the Whitefish Songwriter’s Festival, which took place in October. She also pointed to recent efforts to revive Whitefish’s Halloween costume parties, an old but abandoned tradition that has been revived this fall in the form of a costume contest and pub crawl in downtown Whitefish.

As for the winter outlook, Mullins said they’re hoping for snow. Right now lodging on the books for the winter season is down by double digits from November through February.

Polumbus, the Whitefish Mountain Resort president, said in his experience, following a tough snow year, like last year, there can be a kind of hangover when it comes to things like season passes and lodging reservations. Pass sales this year are off 1.2% compared to last year, which Polumbus said was the eighth consecutive record year for season pass sales.

“Skiers, they forget real quick, when things are looking good, but they have kind of long memories to things like a tough start to a snow year. So, I think we’re feeling that a little bit right now with just our lodging reservations, but I fully expect that if it does snow that will fill in,” Polumbus said, adding that he has already seen large group travel reservations pick up in the last six weeks.

He noted that last year there was more total snowfall for the season than the previous year, but last year was a slow start, which had an extended effect through the winter on the business side of things.

Spence, with Pursuit, said that he is seeing people plan further ahead for stays at properties along Glacier National Park’s perimeter, but that bookings for Whitefish properties are more spontaneous. To some extent that lends itself to winter weather-related bookings, according to Spence, but he said that they are seeing that behavior carry over even into the summer season.

“We’re seeing similar patterns, as far as the booking window really shifting,” said White, the Averill Hospitality marketing director. “We’ll see strong advanced bookings, up to about four to six months prior to arrival, then there’s a big dropoff, then we start pacing behind a little bit, then we see a nice uptick of close-in bookings.”

“I think there’s a fair number of people that are kind of in a wait-and-see type of mentality, particularly for ski season,” she said, adding that August showed a similar pattern this year because of lingering smoke concerns.

As for what kind of weather Big Mountain could see this winter, Ambrose, the forecaster, said things appear to be shaping up for a weak La Nina winter season, which could be slightly cooler than average. Looking back through 30 years of reliable weather data, Ambrose said that he and a meteorologist with Open Snow honed in on six years they identified with similar conditions at this time of year.

They then pulled snow pack average data from Stahl Peak, which is about 35 miles north of Big Mountain in the Whitefish Range, and after averaging it out across those six seasons to the 30-year median found that typically years like this one produce about 98% of average snowfall. Four of the six years ended up at average or slightly above average, with 2016-2017 being a high mark with the area receiving 140% above average in terms of snowfall. But Ambrose also noted that 2000-2001 was a weak La Nina year, in which the area hit somewhere between 55 and 60% of its average snowfall.

“Because I’m an optimist, I’m trying to look forward, the readings currently right now very much are similar to what they were in 2016, so of those six years, the 2016-17 was the highest year. Whitefish received over 400 inches of snow that year.”

The National Weather Service in Missoula is also expecting a weak La Nina for its coverage area developing in the next month or two and continuing through March, with about a 35% chance it does not develop. In a seasonal outlook report issued Oct. 17, the weather service shows northwest Montana’s odds leaning towards a winter with below-average temperatures and likewise leaning towards above-average precipitation.

If the La Nina develops as expected this winter, the area could see mountain snowpack at or above normal, valley precipitation snowfall above normal, with more frequent storms compared to last year, valley temperatures below normal, and a few more arctic systems than normal, according to the weather service.

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