The deadline for legislative candidates to file for office has now passed and the first campaign issue, at least for Republicans running for state office, has emerged: whether to repeal health care reform.
A GOP lawmaker told me weeks ago that, if health care reform was made federal law, her party planned on introducing legislation similar to that in Virginia, which exempts that state from certain aspects of reform and laid the groundwork for suing the federal government. But since our Legislature does not convene for nine months, many statewide candidates are pining to capitalize on this issue for several reasons.
Conservative lawmakers generally hate this bill. While there are accusations that Republicans opposed the legislation less on its merits and more on their desire to see the Democratic majority fail, I don’t buy it. I think some in the GOP are legitimately surprised that this legislation was resuscitated from near death.
Since then, a bill draft request has been filed with the state that seeks a constitutional “freedom to choose health care coverage.” And a Flathead lawmaker last week said he and his colleagues are writing a letter to Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock asking that he join more than a dozen other states in filing a lawsuit against the feds, claiming that aspects of the legislation are unconstitutional.
In a statement, Bullock’s spokesman Kevin O’Brien said, “We have looked at the lawsuit and agree with the vast majority of legal scholars – it’s without merit. While people can have legitimate differences about policy, we shouldn’t be spending money on court challenges that are more about politics than the law.”
He may be right. GOP lawmakers may just be playing politics. After all, few believe the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn the law. But Bullock is a Democrat, so he makes for an easy target on this issue. As does Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who has previously championed health care reform and is sure to veto any resolution passed by the Montana Legislature that challenges the law. So in the short term, what do the Republican legislative candidates have to lose?
State GOP Executive Director Bowen Greenwood has maintained that health care reform would be a “winning issue” for his party in the upcoming elections. Most national polls that show a small uptick in support for the legislation still record the majority of people opposing the bill. I would guess it’s even more unpopular in Libertarian-minded Montana. And even more so in the Flathead, still a conservative stronghold in the state.
How this sways the November election and thus the makeup of the 2011 state Legislature will be determined by how effective the GOP candidates are in keeping the issue alive.
Even after being signed into law, few people know what this legislation actually does. Yes, they have heard about the health care mandates and tax credits for small businesses, but how insurance may change is far less known. If health care “Armageddon,” as U.S. House Minority Leader John Boehner put it, fails to materialize in the next six months, then fewer Montanans will care about it. Voters have chronically short memories.
If, by the time the yard signs come out and the glad-handing hits the homestretch, the main issue is still health care (and, say, not the state budget, which appears to be improving and has stayed in the black throughout the recession under a Democratic leadership), then the net gain by Republicans in the state House and Senate could be significant. If not, well, expect the state Legislature to look a lot like it did in 2009 – about evenly split.