HELENA – U.S. Sen. Max Baucus says he is confident that the health care overhaul he played a big part in drafting will gain in popularity as its provisions come into effect, and as people begin to understand its complicated details.
The health care bill is perhaps the most important piece of legislation that Baucus has played a key role in during four decades in office — and it is rife with political implications for him and his party.
Baucus believes that even portions that political opponents and those angry with the health care plan highlight as examples off bad policy — like the individual mandate to buy health insurance — will be liked by most in the end. Many such provisions kick in within four years.
“I think by 2014, more and more people are going to see the benefit,” Baucus said in an interview late last week with The Associated Press. “My goal is to do my best to help people understand this thing.”
That alone will be a huge challenge, for a bill that affects so many in very different ways.
Take the individual mandate to buy private health insurance starting in 2014. It affects the 159,000 uninsured Montanans differently — and figuring out exactly how is not easy. A small portion will qualify for modestly increased Medicaid rolls, while most of the rest will get a stipend from the federal government to buy private health insurance.
Take an uninsured family of four making $44,000 — or roughly twice the poverty level — for example.
The health care bill says those folks will receive an advance tax credit from the federal government so that the cost of the private health insurance does not exceed 6.3 percent of their income — or about $225 per month — and offers more or less help to others based on income level, according to an analysis from the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation.
Then comes the insurance exchange, which will be coordinated by each state, and will offer four types of plans ranging from bronze to silver for that family to buy from private insurance companies. The level of the tax credit is based on the silver plan — which is targeted to cover about 70 percent of costs. But other options would be available which would change the costs.
The one example doesn’t even start to cover a myriad of other ways the bill could affect that family alone, such as by reductions to flex spending accounts or a tax on tanning services.
Baucus said he understands it will be a challenge to explain the plan to everyone — but believes public opinion he feels is split down the middle will become much more favorable over time.
“There is a lot in here that is good that people will like,” Baucus said. “The popularity will gradually grow the more it is understood.”
Republicans clearly believe the issue is loser for Democrats — and a winner for the GOP.
U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg has been solidly against the law from the start — lampooning it as a way to “shift the increasing costs of health care from the struggling patient to the struggling taxpayer.”
The Montana Republican party has castigated it at as a federal takeover and social engineering — and plans to continue attacking it through the election cycle.
“I think Sen. Baucus is living in some world I am not fully familiar with if he thinks people like it,” said Montanan Republican Party chairman Will Deschamps. “Folks here in Montana hate this bill. I think Sen. Baucus has been in D.C. too long.”
Baucus has given his critics ammunition as well. Right after passage, he called the bill “an income shift. It’s a shift, it’s a leveling to help lower-income and middle-income Americans.”
But Baucus, who will be up for re-election in 2014 just as many of the provisions are going into place, thinks it’s the Republicans who are making a big blunder.
“Clearly in the long term I think it’s a mistake on their part. In the near future, even, I think it’s a mistake,” Baucus said. “It’s good for Montana. It’s good for Americans. And people will begin to realize that over time.”
Baucus recognizes it’s a bit of a gamble.
Baucus said that when he was young he was somewhat naively telling former U.S. Sen. Mike Mansfield, a legend in Montana politics, that the voters will always reward them for doing the right thing.
“He looked at me, with a wry smile, and said ‘Yep. But sometimes it takes a long time,'” Baucus recalled. “I don’t think it will take that long this time.”