It’s difficult to judge which special interest groups can best influence our local elections. These groups, or individuals, can ably draw attention to specific candidates and issues through advertising, public gatherings and lawsuits. But how that translates into votes is far less clear.
Recently, the conservative pro-property rights group American Dream Montana announced its ambitious goal of overturning the county’s growth policy this November. But even if it can complete all the steps to get the referendum on the ballot, I have no best guess as to how it would fare.
Mickey Lapp, who has run a half-dozen campaigns for local Republican candidates and consulted on several more, said the effort could be used as a measuring stick for American Dream’s influence. “That would be a real test of whether or not they have any political pull, if they can manage to get the growth policy overturned in this cycle,” she said.
In other words, results matter. And while third parties appear to wield substantial power in the Flathead Valley, their influence can also be wildly overstated because many of them refuse to name how many members they have. And the unknown is often perceived to be bigger than it actually is.
That’s not to discount what has been accomplished in recent elections. Just look at the last year.
In the run-up to the 2009 general election, the Flathead Business and Industry Association set its sights squarely on Kalispell City Hall, taking out advertisements depicting two councilmen, Hank Olsen and Jim Atkinson, and Mayor Pam Kennedy (now Carbonari) as captains of a ship, floating in a sea of red ink, and about to crash into an iceberg that represented their alleged poor management skills. Only Atkinson survived the November vote.
That same year, Rick Blake, a wealthy philanthropist who lives in the Big Mountain area, spent thousands of dollars of his own money to encourage voters to defeat incumbent Whitefish City Councilman Frank Sweeney. And Sweeney lost.
American Dream Montana also had an active 2009, demanding the Flathead County Commission investigate alleged wrongdoing at the Planning and Zoning office and asking that Director Jeff Harris be fired. The commission complied, and hired a private investigator, who found no wrongdoing at the office. Nonetheless, Harris’ contract wasn’t renewed.
In these instances, the influence of third parties was on full display, but I still question whether their actions were the deciding factor. The incumbents who lost were already considered vulnerable for votes that many believed to have hurt local businesses, which was difficult to overcome amid a recession. And the candidates who replaced them are hardly walking lockstep with the third parties who may have helped get them elected.
County Commissioner Jim Dupont, who has a stellar reputation in conservative circles, said he was confident in the results of the third-party investigation into the Planning Office even as American Dream alleged that county officials were covering up for each other. This election cycle, Dupont also endorsed the two Republican challengers to incumbent Sheriff Mike Meehan, whom he backed four years ago, surprising many on the right.
In Whitefish, following a brutal campaign season, some incoming city council candidates tried to distance themselves from Blake while acknowledging his part in getting them elected.
Third parties here, and elsewhere, play an important role in a democracy. But they can also get more praise, and blame, than they deserve.
If, in the next five months, American Dream is able to draft language, gather signatures and get a referendum on the November ballot to repeal the county growth policy, it will demonstrate that it represents the views of more Flathead residents than, as critics suggest, only Russell Crowder. But what voters decide has far less to do with a mysterious third party’s political clout, which is as often real and tangible as it is merely perceived.