The latest issue of Delta Air Lines’ Sky magazine features Montana prominently and calls our state “a leader the rest of the nation should listen and learn from” that “continues to attract businesses from all over the world.” That’s quite the compliment, but forgive me if I don’t share the writer’s enthusiasm. Because while the rest of our state has weathered the recession relatively well and even added jobs in the last year, northwest Montana continues to wait for its recovery. And the numbers show how long we have to go.
Traditionally, the late winter months are when the number of unemployed here spikes. And the problem is, right now, we are in even worse shape than last year as far as jobs go. In March 2010, our jobless rate was tallied at a record-breaking 13.8 percent. If history is any indication, that bleak mark could be in jeopardy.
The latest unemployment figures available, which measure November, place Flathead’s jobless rate at 11.8 percent. That’s well above 2009’s non-seasonally adjusted number recorded at the same time, which was 10.1 percent.
Of course, that’s no guarantee that the jobless record will be eclipsed in the coming months, but in each of the last three years the highest unemployment rates were recorded in the month of March: 6.7 percent in 2008; 13.1 percent in 2009; and 13.8 percent in 2010.
Meanwhile, in Sky magazine’s recent spread and elsewhere, everyone is quite bullish about Montana’s economy. And outside Northwest Montana, what’s not to like?
The eastern part of state, especially, has fared well in the wake of the recession. With ranchers and farmers posting healthy profits and the cost of oil rising, it is poised to do even better in the coming year. In a recent business story in the Billings Gazette, Jan Falstad aptly wrote that during 2010 “Yellowstone County was Montana’s oasis.” The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the state’s most populous county stands at 5.2 percent, and it hasn’t surpassed 6.2 percent since the economy tanked.
But even outside of this oasis, none of the state’s most populated counties have come close to reaching our number of unemployed. Many of them are buoyed by relatively recession-proof jobs: large universities, an Air Force base, government headquarters. Besides ours, Gallatin County, home of Bozeman, has the highest unemployment rate among the state’s more urban counties – and it stands at a comparatively low 7.4 percent.
While the state’s unemployment rate comes in at seasonally adjusted 7.2 percent, it would be considerably lower if Northwest Montana’s figures weren’t factored into it. And lawmakers who just convened in Helena shouldn’t lose sight of that fact.
It’s encouraging that Republicans, who now enjoy large majorities at the capitol, plan on focusing mostly on the economy. In a list of priorities compiled by House Speaker Mike Milburn, the emphasis is squarely on spurring business growth instead of social issues. GOP leaders also appear cautiously optimistic that they can work with Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer on myriad proposals addressing the need to attract jobs. And we can only hope that they maintain their early sense of urgency.
Our elected officials deserve some credit for keeping money in the state coffers. And it’s true that, as a whole, we’re faring better than most. But Montana is a big state, and lawmakers should remember the corner of it that has, so far, been detoured by any economic upswing.