As the June primary approaches, fundraising numbers are a little more revealing as to who has the edge in statewide races, especially in crowded fields such as that for the Republican governor nomination.
Former Congressman Rick Hill hauled in about $31,400 over the last month, between March 6 and April 5, has more than $300,000 on hand and, perhaps more telling, hasn’t had to rely on his own money to build his coffers. That’s not to suggest Hill will coast to the nomination, but time is running out for another candidate to differentiate himself as the clear alternative.
Ken Miller has perhaps worked the hardest to contrast himself with the frontrunner. He has courted tea party activists, touted his conservative credentials and wasn’t too far behind Hill in last month’s fundraising totals – he raised about $20,000.
Miller has also been the most willing to criticize Hill by name, especially in regard to wolves. Citing Hill’s comment that wolves “could have a catastrophic impact on Montana’s elk and other big game herds, and increase pressure on livestock producers,” Miller said his opponent is out of touch and asked, “How much more catastrophic does the impact have to get, Mr. Hill?”
He then took it a step further, pointing out that Hill hasn’t hunted big game for at least 10 years and played the California card: “Perhaps Congressman Hill should have spent more time enjoying what Montana has to offer and less time in California,” Miller said, referring to Hill’s second home there.
Hill called the criticism “a desperate move to get some attention.” But it’s fair to say that someone needed to make one. Miller still trails Hill in total cash on hand with $80,000 – half of which includes loans and money he has given his campaign, according to the Associated Press.
Corey Stapleton is also vying for the conservative mantle. He has about $160,000 in the bank, although he has relied on $70,000 in donations and loans to himself. He has the money to compete and recently told the Beacon he considers this a “two-man race” between him and Hill. The problem is Miller says the same thing.
The reality is a half-dozen candidates are running against Hill and, if the election was held today, would split the vote to varying degrees. And it’s hard to imagine, with less than two months until the primary, seeing any of the candidates dropping out and endorsing one of their competitors.
It is difficult to gauge who is making inroads – or measure momentum – in this race because of the lack of polling for several weeks. Late last year, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Hill with 37 percent, Miller with 10 percent and the rest of the field in the single digits and a whopping 35 percent undecided.
Coming down the homestretch, we are sure to see more advertisements and perhaps one of the candidates will be able to make a move and establish himself as a top-tier candidate. But time is ticking away.
Along with Miller and Stapleton, Neil Livingstone, Jim Lynch, Jim O’Hara and Bob Fanning are trying to broaden their appeal. But if none of them does, Hill may need as little as one-third of the primary vote to win.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Attorney General Steve Bullock faces no real threat in the primary race for his party’s nomination for governor. Republican officials argue that is not to his advantage.
“The first thing I want to make clear is contested primaries help us,” Bowen Greenwood, the executive director of the Montana Republican Party, told the Great Falls Tribune.
Unless something changes soon, it also appears to be helping Hill.