Hot and dry weather has wreaked havoc across the nation’s heartland and the West, causing widespread drought, setting off devastating wildfires and forcing evacuations in multiple states where the blazes encroached on residences.
Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber declared a state of emergency last week authorizing the use of National Guard helicopters to fight wildfires, while Idaho Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter issued a disaster declaration that also cleared the way for National Guard participation in firefighting efforts.
In Montana, fires struck the eastern part of the state hard in late June and early July. The Ash Creek Fire charred nearly 250,000 acres east of Lame Deer, prompting Gov. Brian Schweitzer to call it “one of the most dangerous fires in the history of Montana.”
At Schweitzer’s request, President Barack Obama signed a disaster declaration allowing federal aid to assist with infrastructure repairs following the destructive blaze. Fires elsewhere in the state caused significant damage as well, torching large swaths of ranchland.
Yet through it all, Northwest Montana remained without flames thanks to a June that saw heavy rainfall. At Glacier Park International Airport, a record 6.9 inches of rain fell in June, nearly four inches above average. But dry weather eventually arrived, and with it came the fires in late July and August.
Now that wildfires are here, the question is whether Mother Nature will provide the proper weather to keep the flames at bay and ultimately stamp out the fire season.
Michelle Mead, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Missoula, said “we are getting to the point of the year” when weather systems generally begin arriving with the promise of precipitation.
But that point hasn’t arrived yet. Immediate forecasts from the National Weather Service call for more hot and dry weather, though interspersed with rain.
“We keep getting little bouts of precipitation,” Mead said.
As hard as weather ever is to predict, this summer has proven to be more unruly than usual in Montana, with record moisture falling in parts of the state while at the same time hundreds of thousands of acres were burning in other parts.
“It’s been a very bizarre summer,” Mead said.
Jeremy Pris, fire program manager for the Department of Natural Resources and Conservation’s Kalispell unit, said the last weeks of August are “typically the height of our fire season.” The grass is drying out and the temperatures are in the 80s and 90s.
Pris said his agency is staffing itself appropriately to be able to quickly attack new fire starts.
“Initial attack is the name of game,” Pris said.
Echoing Mead, Pris holds out hopeful anticipation that early September will bring fall rains – or more specifically, “a season-ending event, which is significant rainfall.”
According to a report from the U.S. Drought Monitor released Aug. 16, most of Northwest Montana is safe from drought conditions, with only a sliver of Flathead County’s eastern edge qualifying for an “abnormally dry” designation.
Areas throughout southern and central Montana have “moderate” or “severe” drought conditions. Forecasts predict the drought to persist or intensify in these areas. Late last week, stage 1 fire restrictions went into effect on all state, federal and private lands in Ravalli County, due to “very high fire danger, extremely dry fuels, and an increase in human-caused fires,” according to the DNRC.
The U.S. Drought Monitor lists conditions in much of the Midwest U.S. as “extreme” or “exceptional” – the highest-level classification. Conditions in parts of the West are considered “extreme.”
Mead said temperatures in Kalispell were 2.5 degrees higher than normal for July while precipitation was “well below normal” at .74 inches, compared to the average of 1.45. Nationwide, July was the hottest month ever recorded in the continental United States and the first seven months of this year were also the hottest on record.
In Northwest Montana, a brief spell of coolness and rain last week temporarily improved fire conditions but hot weather returned over the weekend. On Aug. 17, the Flathead National Forest said it expected fire behavior “to return to pre-storm intensities.”
“Fire managers will adjust their strategies as the conditions change,” the national forest statement said.