Last week the Democratic-leaning firm, Public Policy Polling, released a survey of potential matchups in Montana’s 2014 U.S. Senate race. Right now, one Republican has declared he is running and another has said he is considering running for the seat currently held by Sen. Max Baucus. But PPP also polled hypothetical matchups, which were far more interesting.
The polling firm pitted former Gov. Brian Schweitzer against Baucus in a Democratic primary and found Schweitzer winning, by a lot. That’s not all that surprising since Baucus is rightly considered one of the architects of President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act, which is rather unpopular in Montana.
But what’s even more interesting is that the poll results were posted on Schweitzer’s Facebook page, though the former governor has maintained he is not running for Senate. Thus, Internet speculation spread fast.
David Weigel at Slate wrote that since his speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2008, “activists with Montana ties have daydreamed about a Schweitzer bid for the Senate or (why not?) presidency.”
The Hill’s headline read: “Schweitzer touts poll showing him leading Baucus for Senate.”
The Washington Post: “Schweitzer vs. Baucus? Montana ex-governor posts poll.”
When reached by Marnee Banks of the Montana Television Network, Schweitzer said he doesn’t post on his own Facebook page and hadn’t seen the poll, but he would go take a look at it.
Apparently, he liked what he saw. The post remained on the former governor’s page days later. And so did the comments on it, which were mostly encouraging.
“I will work hard for your campaign if you decide to run. I can’t say the same about ol’ Max,” one commenter wrote.
“It is time for Max to retire and enjoy his Montana ranch. No disrespect to his service, but most people retire after 30 some years. There is life after the Senate,” wrote another.
A few others pointed out how odd it was for Schweitzer, or his social media team, to post the poll numbers without context. And it is odd. What does the former governor have to gain if he isn’t running for Senate other than making the incumbent, another member of his party, look bad?
Baucus, at least according to this recent poll, may have a difficult reelection campaign without a strong primary opponent. His approval rating is underwater by 3 percentage points. And while he leads Corey Stapleton, who has declared (45/38) and Champ Edmunds, who is mulling it over (47/37), he performs far worse against potential stronger opponents.
He trails both former Gov. Marc Racicot and Congressman Steve Daines by five points, according to PPP. And Baucus leads newly elected Attorney General Tim Fox by just three points.
Of course, a lot will change over the next several months and Baucus’ numbers have improved since the debate over health care reform is no longer at a fever pitch. But it’s also clear that the senator will face a far bigger challenge than during his previous reelection in 2008 when he coasted to victory with 73 percent of the vote.
Perhaps that’s why the 2014 campaign has already begun. A third-party group supporting Baucus made a significant ad buy earlier this year and commercials praising him have been airing across the state. The senator has also been raising money, more than $600,000 in the last quarter, and has $3.6 million in his campaign account.
Baucus will be running for his seventh term, and it will likely be his most competitive race since former Congressman Denny Rehberg challenged him in 1996. So if Schweitzer really isn’t running, he also isn’t doing the senator any favors, which is – to say the least – odd.