As 2015 reaches its midway point, a recent real estate report indicates that initial prognostications about a steady, if not historic, year for the market are holding up.
According to the mid-year report from Jim Kelley of Kelley Appraisals, who has kept track of real estate trends in the Flathead Valley for decades, overall residential sales in Flathead County so far this year are up 15.2 percent from the same time in 2014, at 743 compared to the previous year’s 645.
Earlier in the year, Kelley predicted that the Flathead market could approach historic levels, given the amount of sales that had happened in the first quarter. Now at the halfway point of the year, the sales seemed to have cooled off a bit, but the market remains strong.
“Right now, based on what I’m seeing, it’s backing off a little bit from hitting the record volume,” Kelley said. “But it’s coming close.”
So far this year, the overall sales in Flathead County equal about half of the total sales from 2014. One major distinction between the first six months of 2015 and the first six months of 2014 is the median sale price.
From January to June 2014, the median price for residential sales was $213,900. In that same time frame this year, the median house price is $235,500. This shows that house values are perhaps ticking up, Kelley said, or that brokers are selling more of the top-tier, expensive properties that have been languishing in an overstocked inventory left over from the recession.
The number of bank-owned sales is another indicator of a strengthening economy, and so far in 2015, there have been 69 such transactions, compared to 78 in the same time frame in 2014.
Short sales decreased from 20 in the first six months of 2014 to seven this year, with non-distress sales making up nearly 90 percent of 2015’s overall sales. As of July, there were 1,615 residences listed for sale, with 97 percent of those listings cited as non-distressed.
According to Kelley’s report, there have been 351 sales in Kalispell, including a 3.5-mile ring around the city limits. This is on pace with 2014’s total 715 sales, though the average price for a home in Kalispell has climbed to $240,467 compared to 2014’s $216,753.
Whitefish continues to be one of the most expensive places in the valley to buy a house, with the average price coming in at $445,642, up 14 percent from 2014. So far, there have been 120 residential sales in Whitefish, nearly matching the 118 sales in the first half of 2014.
In Columbia Falls, there have been 83 residential sales so far, with the average home price climbing to $223,301, compared to the average from 2014 of $205,720. Last year at this time, there had been only 64 sales.
The median price for a home in Columbia Falls has jumped to $205,000, up from 2014’s $196,500.
Residential sales in the Bigfork area are apace with last year’s sales, with 59 in 2015 so far, and 55 at this time last year. Bigfork homes average $403,897, with a median price sitting at $269,900, which is down nearly 7.5 percent from 2014’s median price of $291,555.
In Lakeside, there have been 37 sales so far this year, compared to 23 at this same time last year. The average home price in Lakeside is $423,633, with the median price hitting $240,000. Last year, the median price at this time was $265,000, before settling at $295,000 for the whole year.
Sales of lakefront properties on Flathead and Whitefish lakes are nearly identical to last year’s number, with 21 on Flathead Lake so far and three on Whitefish Lake. Prices for lakefront properties remain high, with the average for Whitefish Lake sitting at $1,164,000, and Flathead Lake at $907,619.
While Kelley said he would dial back projections of a record-breaking year, he did note that the Flathead Valley experienced a boost in sales during the second half of the year in 2014, with 645 in the first half and 862 in the second.
Taking that into consideration, along with recent reports that the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates for the first time since 2006, Kelley said the rest of the year could follow suit or it could slow down.
“If mortgage rates go up, that could slow it down, but it may be part of the reason things are so busy now,” he said. “It could go up, it could go down, or it could stay the same.”
Whichever way the market goes, Kelley said affordability rates are holding steady, though they are approaching the upper end of the scale. This means people are still buying as the economy strengthens.
“It feels sustainable,” Kelley said.