One of the fun things to do when winter turns to spring is study the snowpack data in your favorite Northern Rockies watershed and try to guess what your preferred river will look like come late June, late June being the time most rivers round into shape for trout fishing.
I play this game every year. I play the same game for the Southwest in order to predict how game-bird numbers will fare across the desert habitats the quails prefer.
Precipitation varies from north to south. What doesn’t vary is that good things usually happen where rain falls in normal or above normal amounts — within reason, of course — while a lack of rain usually results in bad outcomes for wildlife, hunters and anglers.
For the record, things look pretty good in western Montana the first week of January from a snowpack standpoint, despite a rather dry fall. According to U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service data, the snow-water equivalent in the Flathead drainage is 114%, the lower Clark Fork is 111% and the Bitterroot is 100%. The data isn’t as rosy as you move east, though the Bear Paw Mountains are an exception at 142%.
That drier trend continues in Wyoming where the rivers that flow north into Montana have below normal or average snowpack for this time of year. The Big Horn is at 73%, as are two particular favorites of mine, the Shoshone and Tongue watersheds.
None of that is particularly scary, however, and most will change, likely for the better if predictions of a La Nina weather pattern developing this winter come true.
La Nina is caused by cooling water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which changes weather patterns across the planet. In the Northern Rockies, those changes are usually wetter (snowier) than normal winters.
The flip side is El Nino, fueled by warmer water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which means drier winters up north, and wetter, monsoon-like conditions in the Southwest.
The last two storm-ravaged winters in California and Arizona have resulted in some of the best-ever conditions for quail hunting in the southwest U.S. this season.
But what bounty El Nino brings, La Nina tends to take away.
If you have a peek at a map of the Snotel sites across the West — where snow depth and soil moisture are recorded, the colors tell the story. As you move south the dots change from blue and green to mostly red, meaning less than 50% of normal. From the southern Sierra east to New Mexico, the Snotel map looks like blood splatter. There are red dots everywhere.
Early January data isn’t destiny and nor are predictions of La Nina. The forecast is for a possible La Nina, which should result in more winter snow in Montana and more primordial river for July, but the girl isn’t here just yet. The winter could turn into a season of average water temps in the Pacific and average precipitation (and snowpack) in the West from north to south.
Or, one or two heavy January storms could turn this into an epic snow season for the Northern Rockies.
What I’m pulling for is a normal winter with decent rain and snow across the West, followed by a mild summer notdominated by forest fires and smoke. Like the good old days, right?
Normal and average, with enough snow to keep the skiers happy and enough summer sun to keep the river runners comfortable. And no Hoot Owl restrictions anywhere in Montana. Wouldn’t that be nice?
We’ll have a better idea how this is going to play out next month, and again two months from now. So far, it appears the Northwest is more likely than not to get above average snow this winter, and if the summer is normal, it could mean a pleasant fishing season.
That would be nice, Brian.