As Republicans Rally Around Trump in Milwaukee, Montana Leaders See a Path to Victory in November

Dressed head-to-toe in patriotic paraphernalia, Montana delegates and political leaders headed to Milwaukee earlier this week to represent the state at the Republican National Convention and chart a path toward electoral success in November.

Republicans at the convention have cast aside months of intraparty bickering over their presidential nominee and party platform, uniting behind former President Donald Trump following the attempted assassination of the political leader this past weekend. Delegates from Montana described an energized party, one whose message feels stronger than ever as support for President Joe Biden dwindles and Democrats work to hold their ground in key congressional races.

Montana’s rising political star was reflected at the convention, where Republican U.S. Sen. Steve Daines and Senate candidate Tim Sheehy addressed attendees, affirming their support for Trump and desire to oust longtime Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.

“I fight wildfires for a living, so take it from me, the world is on fire under Joe Biden,” Sheehy told delegates during a short speech on Tuesday night.

Sheehy criticized the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, tied Tester to what he described as the president’s failed policies and repeated refrains that have become familiar for the candidate on the campaign trail. Sheehy opened and closed his remarks with anti-transgender rhetoric and criticized Tester for driving a hybrid vehicle around Washington, D.C.  

The convention revealed a reshaped Republican Party, one that has been molded almost entirely by Trump. Even former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley — Trump’s fiercest primary challenger — endorsed the former president in a speech.

Trump officially secured the party’s nomination on Monday. All 31 delegates from Montana cast a vote for Trump.

“As Secretary of State along with all the delegates from Montana, we stand with a leader who has reshaped American politics and reinvigorated our spirit as a nation,” Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen said during the presidential roll call vote.

Jacobsen was joined by State Auditor and U.S. House candidate Troy Downing, state GOP Chair Don “K” Kaltschmidt and state Rep. Lola Sheldon-Galloway, among others.

RNC delegates on Monday adopted a revised party platform that was reportedly reviewed and edited by Trump, one that centered the former president’s signature slogans and leaned into his populist politics. The platform offered softer language on abortion, marking a shift for the party as Americans increasingly favor access to the procedure.

Representatives from the Montana delegation described an animated crowd in Milwaukee, one that felt more connected than ever to Trump in the wake of Saturday’s assassination attempt.

Gayle Lammers, a state Senate candidate from Hardin and RNC delegate, said via text message there is a “sense of positivity and eagerness to unite the country” at the convention.

State Rep. Braxton Mitchell, R-Columbia Falls, in an email to the Beacon described an energy “like nothing I have ever seen before.”

Mitchell said he and his colleagues are “more committed than ever” to ensuring Trump’s reelection and that a “radical leftist attempted to take his life.”

Investigators have yet to uncover a motive for the assassination attempt against Trump; however, a number of high-profile Republicans have blamed President Joe Biden and the political left for the incident, citing inflammatory rhetoric. There has been no disclosure that the shooter, a 20-year-old man from Pennsylvania, left a suicide note, social media posts or any other indication of why he attempted to kill the former president.

Trump on Monday announced the selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance to serve as his vice-presidential running mate. Vance is a veteran of the United States Marine Corps, a graduate of The Ohio State University and Yale Law School and the author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” a widely read, and widely criticized, memoir about Vance’s upbringing in rural Appalachia.

During a conversation hosted by Axios, Daines said the selection of Vance will help Trump in critical swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania.

With the convention in full swing, Montana’s GOP officials said they feel confident about the party’s chance to oust Tester and retain their stronghold in down ballot races this fall.

“If I was Jon Tester, I would be very, very nervous,” U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke — who is not at the convention — said on Tuesday.

Zinke described the Senate race as a battle between “two titans”: Daines, who is the chair of the National Republican Senate Committee, the group responsible for electing GOP candidates to the Senate; and Tester, who has risen in the congressional ranks over 17 years in the Senate, chairing the Senate Defense Subcommittee and holding his ground as a Democrat in a reddening state.

Zinke said the assassination attempt on Trump “solidified the next president of the United States” and that Biden’s refusal to step down as the Democratic nominee, despite calls from his party, shows that his “thirst for power is greater than love of country.”

Republican political strategist Jake Eaton said that Biden’s poor performance will hurt Democrats down the ballot by supressing voter turnout, including in the Montana Senate race.

Democrats have publicly and privately questioned whether Biden’s weakness will hurt their candidates in other key races, especially in swing states. Montanans have not elected a Democratic presidential candidate since 1992, however, signaling that Tester’s performance in November may be unrelated to voters’ views on Biden.

The last time Tester shared a ticket with a presidential candidate was 2012, when he beat Republican U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg by four percentage points. That same year, President Barack Obama lost Montana by 13 points.

Eaton also tied Tester’s record to the “garbage policy that [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer pulls” and said the campaign’s efforts to portray Tester as bipartisan are deceitful.

Monica Robinson, spokesperson for the Tester campaign, said in an email, “Jon Tester does what’s right for Montana. President Trump signed more than 20 of his bills into law, and over the years Jon has stood up to President Biden on many issues – from securing the border to protecting Montana from burdensome energy regulations. That’s why Jon has continually been ranked one of the most effective U.S. senators of either party.”

According to FiveThirtyEight, Tester voted with Biden 91% of the time during the 117^th Congress. He voted against the president’s agenda at the third-highest rate among Democrats, after Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Daines, the state’s Republican senator, voted with Biden 32% of the time.

As November nears, Montana’s GOP is confident in its ability to retain a legislative supermajority and control of top state offices. While ousting Tester will be the party’s heaviest lift, top officials believe the rising tide of support behind Trump will buoy all Republican boats.

“I think in general, recent events helped further unify the party,” Eaton said. “Not only in Montana, but nationally, Republicans coming together behind Donald Trump.”

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