National Democrats See Pickup Potential in Montana’s Western House District
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will contribute to the effort to flip the seat from Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, who has held it since 2022, but didn’t endorse a specific candidate in the crowded Democratic primary this week
By Mariah Thomas
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) named Montana’s western House district to its list of “Districts in Play” for the 2026 election cycle Tuesday, but didn’t endorse a specific candidate in the crowded Democratic primary. The seat is one of 44 currently held by Republicans the DCCC thinks could be within reach for Democrats this November.
Political analysts have long speculated Montana’s western district, which includes the Democratic strongholds of Bozeman and Missoula, could be competitive for Democrats. The Cook Political Report ranks Montana’s first congressional district as “likely Republican,” while it ranks the eastern district and U.S. Senate races as solidly Republican.
The DCCC’s involvement in the race brings a national spotlight and training opportunities as four Democratic hopefuls compete for the chance to take on Rep. Ryan Zinke in November’s general election. While candidate filing for the primary remains open until March 4, Zinke has yet to draw a primary challenger.
The four-person Democratic primary field includes Ryan Busse, the party’s 2024 gubernatorial candidate; Russell Cleveland, a rancher from St. Regis; Sam Forstag, a wildland firefighter and union leader from Missoula; and Matt Rains, a rancher from Simms, just outside the district’s lines. This year’s primary election will take place June 2.
Montana gained the western district following 2020’s census, and the first election the district was in play was 2022. But Democrats have come up short since Montana gained the seat back.
In both 2022 and 2024, Zinke faced off against Monica Tranel, a Missoula attorney and former Olympic rower. Tranel came within four points of Zinke in 2022. In 2024, her campaign earned a nod from the DCCC. But Zinke widened his margin of victory between 2022 and 2024, besting Tranel by seven points in the latter year. His campaign manager highlighted that margin when asked about the DCCC’s involvement in this year’s election.
“Montana can’t be bought by D.C. libs’ dark money,” said Heather Swift, Zinke’s campaign manager. “It didn’t work in ’24 and won’t work this year. Despite more than $10 million in attack ads against Zinke, Montanans doubled down on their support when they reelected him by double the margin.”
Zinke, a long-time politician, first served a stint as Montana’s at-large congressman from 2015 to 2017. President Donald Trump tapped Zinke to serve in his cabinet as Secretary of the Interior during his first administration, a position Zinke held from 2017 to 2018. And, he has won in the western district since its creation, carving out a brand as a Republican willing to take a stand for public lands. His bid for re-election has already earned an endorsement from Trump.
Still, to Zinke’s Democratic challengers, the DCCC’s involvement in the race indicates his vulnerability. Busse, who ran for governor in 2024, pointed to a poll his campaign released when it launched as evidence. The poll showed Busse with a 47%-43% lead over Zinke among 424 likely voters in western Montana. That lead was within the poll’s 4.76% margin of error.
As the candidates begin hitting the campaign trail, universally, they said they’ve heard about issues like housing, healthcare and affordability. It’s on those issues that they hope to draw a distinction from the incumbent, who they say hasn’t represented Montanans’ interests on those issues in Congress.
“I’m glad the national Democrats see what Montanans have known for years — Ryan Zinke is a coward of a congressman who doesn’t show up to represent or face his constituents, and folks here are ready for a new generation of leadership,” said Forstag, one of the candidates looking to face Zinke. “Montana families have been left behind by politicians in D.C., and I’m running to finally start fixing our broken systems of housing, healthcare, and childcare.”
Cleveland, who has been in the race since April, and Rains, the rancher from Simms, each seconded the idea that Montanans are ready for a change — though they also highlighted that Montanans will be the ones who ultimately make that choice.
“This race is not going to be dictated by Washington, it will be decided by Montanans that are struggling to get by with rising health care costs, lack of affordable housing and tariffs that threaten our way of life,” Rains said. “… We need a candidate that will stand up for Montana values and appeal to those who feel like they’ve been written off, regardless of political party. We need a candidate who can win.”
“National attention can be helpful, but this race will and should be decided by Montanans, not Washington D.C. consultants, dark money groups or out of touch politicians,” Cleveland said. “As a Navy veteran and business leader, I believe real representation can only be restored through service and accountability, by building trust and consistently showing up. Flipping this seat is only possible by putting working Montanans first.”