There’s a special election coming up May 25 to fill the vacancy left when Montana’s U.S. House Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) became Secretary of Interior for President Donald Trump. Can’t wait, can you? I won’t – I’m voting and tuning the heck out as soon as I can.
Why are Montanans again being pounded with mindless ads, rote letters to the editor, and a big fight over whether or not the special election would be by mail or at polling places? Well, let’s look back at Montana’s latest Senate vacancy in 2014, when Gov. Steve Bullock appointed his untested ticket-mate John Walsh to fill in for long-time U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, who in turn had been appointed by President Barack Obama to be ambassador to Red China (phew).
Upon news of Baucus’ “kick upstairs,” Walsh had already announced his elective candidacy, but the interim appointment was viewed by all as a big help to Walsh’s 2014 election chances. Of course, we all know what happened later – Walsh was exposed as a plagiarist by none other than the New York Times, ended his campaign, and boom, Republican Steve Daines went to the Senate.
What you might not remember is, Democratic state Sen. Brad Hamlett of Great Falls sponsored Montana’s 2015 law prohibiting the governor from appointing an interim U.S. senator. Given the John Walsh disaster (at least for Montana Democratic insiders), Hamlett’s law passed by a screamingly bipartisan 147-3 margin.
But in December 2016, Sen. Hamlett about-faced, declaring that Gov. Bullock should be allowed to appoint Rep. Zinke’s interim replacement – at least until the U.S. Supreme Court ruled such. However, Hamlett was set straight by outgoing Montana Secretary of State Linda McCulloch (D), who based her opinion on a congressional research memo that found, under the Constitution, only U.S. senators can be appointed to interim slots. The people elect the members of the “People’s House.”
So, we’re getting an election, not an appointment. And the national leaderships of both parties are hoping these special elections will be read as “bellweather” events, to build (or kill) “momentum” for the 2018 midterms.
First, there was the Georgia special election to replace Congressman Tom Price, now Secretary of Health and Human Services for Trump’s administration. This part of Georgia sent Newt Gingrich to Congress – you know, the guy who led the 1990’s “Republican Revolution” blowout. Big voodoo, right? And Georgia, like California, allows candidates to win “early” by getting over 50 percent in an open, “jungle” primary. There was one 30-year-old Democrat, a Bernie Sanders adherent, against eleventy-zillion Republicans who split the vote eleventy-zillion ways. After 8 million “progressive” dollars flooded into the race from outside Georgia, the Democrat got 48.5 percent – but is expected to be “toast” in the follow-up.
Then there was Kansas, with a similar arrangement to Montana’s new law. The party establishments convene, pick a candidate, and there’s an election. Conservative Mike Pompeo (R) was picked to run Trump’s Central Intelligence Agency for Trump. The final margin? GOP by 7 percent.
Keep in mind pundits say Democrats are about as “energized” (ticked off) as the Tea Party was in 2009-2010.
With Georgia and Kansas out of the way, the national spotlight (and the national money spigot) is blasting Montana. I think I’ve seen no less than six warring Greg Gianforte/Rob Quist ads in a row, each for the millionth time, in just one commercial break … utterly ridiculous.
The only fun, at least for a gun guy like me, is the screen-shooting contest between Gianforte and Quist. The shootouts hint that one campaign seems to have more money than the other. The poor campaign shoots an old tube TV. The rich campaign shoots a flat-screen.
Second, it’s clear one candidate (or campaign) knows much more about firearms than the other. Wanna blow something up? Get close with a shotgun – and by the way, use a safe backstop.
Want more substance? Well, there’s going to be (or was, when you read this) one solitary debate, on a Saturday night when the “undecideds” will be out partying. Did Quist take his hat off?
Don’t ask me – I’ve already voted.