Behind the Push to Clear the Field in Montana’s Senate Race

In mid-July, independent U.S. Senate candidate Seth Bodnar made his pitch to a packed room of around 40 people at Kalispell’s Bias Brewing: he’s running for the U.S. Senate not against Republicans or Democrats, but against a broken system. If Montanans send him to the U.S. Senate, Bodnar said, he’ll have their backs, rather than Washington, D.C., interests.  

“One thing I guarantee you, if I have the honor of serving you — and I say, serving you — in the U.S. Senate, I will always fight like hell for you with everything that I can,” Bodnar said. 

Alani Bankhead, the Democrat in the U.S. Senate race, is making a similar pitch for her candidacy.  

“People in Montana and across the country are saying, ‘we’re fed up with money running government,’” Bankhead said in an interview with the Beacon, arguing her opponents, the independent Bodnar and Republican Kurt Alme, are both courting the D.C. elite in their campaigns for Senate. 

Taking issue with the way the U.S. government currently runs is not the only area where the two candidates align. Both have backgrounds serving in the military — Bodnar as a Green Beret, and Bankhead in the U.S. Air Force. They hold similar positions on several issues, purporting to be pro-choice, anti-Iran War and pro-public lands. As they run for the U.S. Senate in what is ostensibly a three-way race, both Bodnar and Bankhead have found themselves courting the same key bloc of voters: those who may self-identify as independents but historically have backed Democratic candidates.  

While Bankhead has found support in the Democratic Party’s base, Bodnar’s candidacy has earned high-profile endorsements from several former Democratic and Republican leaders. The former University of Montana president has also clinched the backing of a slew of groups whose support is more typically lent to Democratic candidates in a two-way race. Polling shows the pair splitting around 45-49% of the vote — in most, Bodnar leads Bankhead —  with Republican Alme hovering just above 40%.  

The split paves the way for Alme to run away with the race, which marks Montana’s first open Senate seat since 2014.  

“To have an independent in the race, this is wholly unprecedented,” said former U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, a Democrat and Montana’s longest-serving U.S. senator who is backing Bodnar.  

“It’s just a new situation,” he continued, adding that in his view, U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., is to blame for the split.  

Daines, who holds the Senate seat Bodnar and Bankhead are in a contest to win, filed to run for the seat but withdrew in the last 10 minutes ahead of the filing deadline, allowing Alme to slot in and avoiding a competitive Republican primary. Daines has said the move aimed to block a strong Democratic candidate from filing for the seat. It’s an assessment Baucus agreed with. He argued Democrats wouldn’t be in the position of potentially splitting their votes if Daines had been more forthcoming.  

The unprecedented dynamic has led to pressure campaigns, with various actors leaning on either Bodnar or Bankhead to exit the race ahead of an Aug. 10 withdrawal deadline as Democrats hope to coalesce their voters’ support behind a single candidate. Complicating the issue further are both candidates’ promises they won’t depart the race.    

Nonetheless, the dropout question raises concerns, both about whether it’d be a legal option, and about the long-term implications for the state’s Democratic Party.  

Once a strong contender in the state’s elections, the party has struggled in recent years to remain competitive, as it grapples with a changing electorate and increasingly nationalized political environment. It’s now grappling with a split among high-profile party members over whether to back its own, or to take a chance on backing an independent candidate who by all traditional metrics has built a machine more capable of taking on a well-funded Republican opponent.  

The clock is ticking.  

DROPOUT CALLS CRESCENDO

The day after Bodnar’s Kalispell appearance, on July 16, a letter from nine lawyers to the Montana Democratic Party laid out the legal argument for the Democratic Party to back Bodnar.  

It suggested, should Bankhead drop her bid, the Democratic Party could opt not to nominate a replacement to fill in her vacancy. State political parties, the lawyers wrote, have a right to association. Legally, it allows state central committees the right to determine their own “standard-bearer.” While they anticipated a potential legal battle — one the Secretary of State’s office has since promised it would pursue if Bankhead dropped her bid — they wrote it would be worthwhile if it presented a chance to wrest the seat out of Republican hands by backing Bodnar.  

“Montana has had an open U.S. Senate seat only three times in the last 50 years,” they wrote. “In a moment as rare as this one, the greatest risk to Democratic values is failing to do everything possible to flip the Senate seat. Personally, we would choose a tough internal conversation and fighting off a possible lawsuit every day of the week if it means we have the opportunity to advance our values and policies in the U.S. Senate, arguably the most powerful single political body in the world.”  

Their letter built on several other calls by prominent figures in Montana politics for Bankhead to leave the race, as well as on other signs of flagging support for the Democrat.  

Nancy Keenan, the former executive director of the Montana Democratic Party, wrote in a letter to the editor June 9 that she’d be supporting Bodnar. She argued “there is not a viable path for a Democratic victory in this race,” and posited Bodnar had a better chance at defeating Alme.  

The mysterious Progressive Vet PAC, which bankrolled Bankhead in the primary, backed out of the race at the end of June. It announced in a press release the reason was “that a Democrat does not have a viable path to winning the Montana Senate seat.” Instead, the PAC said it would back Noah Taylor, a Democrat running in a crowded primary in Kansas to take on incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. It never spent money supporting Taylor or opposing any of his opponents. The PAC filed a termination report with the Federal Election Commission on July 19.   

On July 8, Keenan’s call for a dropout was echoed by 17 Democratic state legislators, who penned a message to Bankhead and Bodnar suggesting a three-way race “substantially increases the likelihood of a Republican victory through a divided center-left vote.”  

“Every week that passes makes it more difficult to unify supporters, consolidate resources, and mount the strongest possible campaign for November,” they wrote. “We therefore respectfully urge the two of you to meet promptly, evaluate the objective realities of the race together, and reach a mutually agreed upon decision regarding who will continue the campaign no later than the end of July, or, at the latest, by the candidate withdrawal deadline in early August.” 

That conversation did take place, Bankhead posted on social media July 18. She wrote in a Facebook post she’d talked with Bodnar, reiterating her position that she’s the Democratic nominee. As the independent, Bankhead said, Bodnar is the one splitting the vote, which makes it his responsibility to rectify. Bodnar, for his part, told the Beacon he’d never tell another candidate what to do.  

“I respect everybody who puts their name up for office,” he said. “That willingness to serve takes courage. It’s important.”  

His focus, he added, is on beating Alme. And while he said he wouldn’t personally pressure another candidate to leave the race, he does view his campaign as the best positioned to get that job done.  

The lawyers’ message, though, seemed to mark an inflection point. Before then, the pushes for a candidate to drop out focused on traditional metrics of a winning campaign. They suggested Bodnar’s fundraising arm — he’s raked in more than $3 million, topping both Alme and Bankhead — combined with polling, which shows the independent being more competitive with Alme than Bankhead in a head-to-head race, indicates his candidacy is more viable. Not to mention, the independent has earned high-profile endorsements from Sen. Baucus, former Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, former Republican Gov. Marc Racicot and groups ranging from End Citizens United to the Montana AFL-CIO. The argument goes: it’s Bodnar whose bid has more legitimacy, so it’s him who should stay in the race. 

After their letter, the tone shifted. On July 21, Carol Williams, the first woman to act as the majority and minority leader in the state Senate, penned an open letter to the Montana Democrats. In it, Williams took issue with Bankhead’s unknown status and highlighted a comment Bankhead made on a podcast last year. While discussing imposter syndrome, Bankhead said, “If you’re poor right now, it’s because you decided you wanted to be poor.”  

While Williams didn’t specifically throw her support behind Bodnar, she wrote that the Democratic Party has “always stood for working people, vulnerable families, civil rights and reproductive freedom. A relentless commitment to these values matters more than any candidate.”  

In the weeks after Williams’ letter, ads bankrolled by the Montana Freedom PAC, which has spent money supporting Bodnar and attacking his opponents, highlighted the clip from Bankhead’s podcast — and other statements she’s made on the show. Her comment about poverty cost her support from some groups. Forward Montana, the largest youth advocacy organization in the state, specifically cited it as a reason to endorse Bodnar over Bankhead in the Senate contest.  

Texts from the PAC have also pushed a petition to ask Bankhead to drop out and highlighted other states where similar dynamics have resulted in Democrats leaving their runs for office. 

In Alaska, Democrat Matt Schultz announced July 17 he’d suspend his campaign for Alaska’s sole U.S. House seat, instead opting to support Bill Hill, the independent in the race. Hill has shored up support from labor unions, education groups and Tribal organizations. And Democrat David Roth dropped out of Idaho’s Senate race last week, saying he believed in what Democrats were fighting for in Idaho and wanted to shift his efforts to other areas. He didn’t endorse Todd Achilles, a former Democratic lawmaker who’s running for the Senate as an independent. Still, Roth’s departure from the race clears the way for Achilles to go head-to-head with Idaho’s incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Risch in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in more than 50 years. 

Other voices have joined Williams’, raising concerns about Bankhead’s previous statements, questioning Bankhead’s background and hitting her over her fundraising and polling figures, which lag behind Bodnar’s. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee last week told Semafor it wouldn’t back Bankhead’s bid. Endorsements from some interest groups included members who voted for Bankhead and have since flipped their support to Bodnar.  

“I voted for Alani Bankhead in June’s primary because I thought she was the best option and a person who would always do what’s best for Montana,” said Erika McMillin, a board member for the Montana Federation of Public Employees, which endorsed Bodnar on July 31. “Following our union’s endorsement process, I believe Seth is the only candidate with a legitimate path to victory who still shares our members’ values.”   

Bodnar, too, has been the subject of pressure campaigns. A group called American Policy Action sent out a text blast last week that included Bodnar’s personal cell phone number, encouraging people to call and tell him to leave the race. In response, Bodnar and Bankhead each released statements calling for civility.  

Republicans have also tried to boost Bankhead’s profile. More Jobs, Less Government, a PAC that spent in support of Republican U.S. Sen. Tim Sheehy in 2024, has pushed out messaging in support of the Democrat. In July, the president attacked Bankhead on his social media.   

Rumors are also swirling in D.C. political circles, including speculation about the possibility of an eleventh-hour run from former Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. Bullock previously ran for the U.S. Senate against Daines in 2020 but was defeated by 10 points in a down-ballot trouncing for the Montana Democrats that year.  

IN THEIR OWN WORDS

For both candidates, the pressure campaigns mounting for their departures from the race have seemed to have little impact on their own convictions to remain in it. 

In the wake of her primary win, Bankhead held a press conference at the University of Montana, where Bodnar previously served as president. At the conference, she took Bodnar to task over a gender discrimination suit that took place against the university and Montana University System while he was president. Allegations in the suit dated back to 2011, before Bodnar’s time at UM, through 2018, when Bodnar took over. Bankhead used the lawsuit as a bludgeon, stating Bodnar was “absolutely the last person on the face of this earth that I would ever drop out of this race for.” 

In defense, Bodnar’s campaign has heralded long-cited statistics by the university indicating women received the majority of promotions (78%) while Bodnar helmed UM, along with women taking over several dean positions. Bodnar told the Beacon it was “hurtful” to see mischaracterizations about his leadership amplified.  

“Investing in women’s leadership was a really important priority for me at the University of Montana,” he said. “We took strong action; we saw measurable results, and I’m incredibly grateful for the opportunity to have worked with amazing women leaders at the University of Montana. And I’ll tell you, our investments in women’s leadership, it’s part of the reason we saw such significant improvements at the university.”   

Since that June press conference, Bankhead has honed her messaging on the topic further, citing a number of factors keeping her in the race. Chief among them: she won the Democratic primary by being “democratically elected by 48,000 Montanans.” Leaving the race, she said, disrespects those who voted for her.  

“It disrespects their vote, and it disrespects democracy, because what’s ultimately happening is you’ve got Daines who handpicked Alme and did the switcheroo, which violated the Republican voters’ ability to choose their candidate,” Bankhead said. “We’ve got Tester-backed Bodnar. So, we have these D.C. political machines trying to tell the people of Montana who their elected officials are gonna be, and that’s not how democracy works.”  

But, Bankhead said, it’s more than that. She views her candidacy — and Democrats fielding a candidate, period — as a vital part of the effort to rebuild the party. In her eyes, it’s undeniable the party has struggled in recent years, and she places the blame at the feet of the party’s former leaders, like Tester, the three-term Democratic senator from Big Sandy whose 2024 loss to Sen. Sheehy cost Montana the last statewide seat held by a Democrat.  

“I voted for Tester,” she said. “I contributed to his campaign, but Tester did not build a bench. There was no succession planning, and when he lost two years ago, that left a void, which, of course, now you know certain powers that be are like, ‘oh, who’s this no name,’ right? Well, that’s a leadership failure, because leaders’ responsibility isn’t just to themselves. It’s to support and encourage the next generation of leaders.”   

Bankhead said the effort to rebuild the party must include “regular Montanans,” since Democrats don’t have the benefit of known factors running for office. Allowing herself to be “bullied” out of the race, she said, wouldn’t help that mission. Instead, she hopes by remaining in the race, she can help build up a new crop of Democratic leaders.  

Still, Bankhead’s campaign has lagged behind Bodnar’s in terms of support. Bodnar’s war chest of more than $3 million with $977,000 on hand to spend has far outpaced Bankhead, whose fundraising efforts haven’t cleared $60,000. The known factors Bankhead referenced — Democrats who formerly held high office in the state and whom the electorate is familiar with, like Tester — have largely fallen behind Bodnar as well. 

And Bodnar has also promised he intends to remain in the race. His campaign has adopted the motto of “just show up” as he traverses the state, hoping to connect with Montanans of all political stripes. He described seeing Montanans’ frustrations cut across party lines, naming off issues like tariffs, affordability and the Iran War as topics he hears about from both sides of the aisle.  

While calls for Bankhead to drop out have mounted, Bodnar said his focus has remained on defeating Alme, who he characterized as a “rubber stamp for what outside, D.C. interests want to see happen in Montana.” Bodnar views his campaign as the one with the best chance to beat Alme.  

“We’ve outraised every other candidate in this race combined,” he said. “We have more individual donations than every other candidate in this race combined. I believe it’s very clear that our campaign is the best positioned to defeat Kurt Alme. And that’s what we’ve always planned: to run in a four-way race. And I believe we’ll be able to build a coalition of Democrats, of independents, of Republicans, of Libertarians, and win in November, and that’s what we’re planning for.”  

The Senate race features a Libertarian candidate, Kyle Austin, in addition to Bankhead, Bodnar and Alme. Libertarians have never won a major seat in Montana.

DEMOCRATIC DIVIDES

While Bodnar’s camp might see a chance at winning in a four-way race, Montana’s former Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer doesn’t buy it.  

When rumors Bodnar would enter the race first grew in stature at the end of January, Schweitzer was vocal about his view that an independent candidate would only hand the race to a Republican. It’s a view the governor doubled down on in an interview with the Beacon.  

“As you’ve heard me say many times, if there’s a Democrat and a Republican, and an independent runs, then that independent will split the votes,” Schweitzer said. “And if they’re more like a Democrat, then they’re gonna take votes from the Democrat. If they’re more like a Republican, they’re gonna take votes from the Republican. That’s just the simple facts.”  

The governor, who endorsed Reilly Neill in the Democratic primary, has said he will support Democratic candidates in the general election. He told the Beacon he intended to support Bankhead, though he has yet to issue a formal endorsement of her campaign.  

Bankhead has found a groundswell of support in the Democratic Party, whose executive director has committed to standing behind the party’s candidate. The executive board of the party, too, has publicly stated several times over its intention to support its own, though rumors have percolated (including stemming from Bankhead herself) that some of its members have split allegiances. The Montana Free Press reported party chair Shannon O’Brien solicited legal advice over the weekend over whether the party would have to name a replacement if Bankhead withdrew in the eleventh hour.

Ron Gerson, who chairs the Flathead Democrats and is a member of the party’s executive board, told the Beacon his job is to expand grassroots support of Democrats in the area. He said his focus is on getting local Democrats elected this fall. He pointed to a full slate of candidates running in the valley as his priority. 

Anna Whiting-Sorrell, another member of the Democratic Party’s executive board who represents western Montana on the body, responded to an email about the Senate race, reiterating her status as a “lifelong Democrat.” Whiting-Sorrell served as a tribal manager for the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes and was the first Native American to lead a state health department after being tapped by Schweitzer to lead Montana’s Department of Public Health and Human Services.  

“In this role, my job is to recruit, train, and elect Democrats and I will stay focused on electing Democrats, leaving political noise to others,” Whiting-Sorrell said. 

Gerson, however, conceded the confusion around the Senate race has posed distractions in the effort to elect local Democrats.  

“Confusion in general at a higher ballot level creates confusion in the minds of both Democrats, independents and Republicans overall, and confusion is never a positive influence in voting,” Gerson said.  

In the Democratic Party, that confusion stems from several high-profile former Democratic elected officials opting to support Bodnar, instead of the party’s own candidate.  

“Look, sort of the basic premise that people are grappling with is where are their first loyalties?” Joe Lamson said. 

Lamson, a longtime Democratic operative who helmed the campaign machine for U.S. Rep. Pat Williams, said, like many others, he’s waiting to see how the Senate race will play out. He sees potential for several different scenarios, from a Bankhead dropout to her staying in the race but encouraging her supporters to back Bodnar instead, to both candidates simply staying in. 

But Lamson speculated the loyalty calculus for some high-profile members of the party is complex. Looking at traditional factors needed to win a race — polling, institutional support and fundraising — Lamson said Bodnar appears more capable of winning than Bankhead. So, he said, the question Democrats are grappling with is whether to back a candidate with shared goals and values who doesn’t carry the party’s label but has a better shot at winning, or to simply back a Democrat.  

“If I’m just pushing for a candidate that I don’t think is going to win, how am I achieving any of my goals?” Lamson said.  

Schweitzer said, in his mind, Bankhead won the Democratic primary, and he’s unconvinced by the arguments Democrats couldn’t win a statewide race. He pointed to his own victorious gubernatorial run, which came after a 16-year dry spell for Democrats holding the governor’s office.

“Ultimately, it’s just disingenuous for an independent candidate to point a finger at a Democrat who won a primary and say, ‘well, why don’t you get out of the race,’” Schweitzer said.  

But for Sen. Baucus, one of Bodnar’s high-profile backers, supporting Bodnar is simple. Baucus said he thinks Bodnar is the most qualified candidate in the race. He also cited Bodnar’s integrity, character and work ethic as factors that further solidified his support for the independent.  

He views Bodnar as a candidate peddling a winning message about fighting for issues that matter to all Montanans, like jobs, education, healthcare and conservation.  

“For me, Montana comes first and the party comes second. What’s best for Montana?” Baucus said. “And clearly, Seth Bodnar is best for Montana.”  

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